国泰君安期货所长早读-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The policy on gold taxation may accelerate investors to concentrate on exchange channels, and ordinary investors may prefer indirect participation in gold investment through bank - agents' exchange products [7]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the price is expected to enter a correction state, but the long - term outlook for next year remains positive. The resumption of production may restrict the upward space, and the price will fluctuate within a range [9][10][46]. - The price of natural rubber is expected to be sorted around 15,000. Due to weather disturbances, the downside space is limited, and investors can consider waiting for low - level long - entry opportunities [11]. - Methanol has significant fundamental pressure, with high domestic supply in the short - term and weak operation under the background of weak macro - drive and weak industrial chain fundamentals [12][14]. - For Treasury bond futures, after a short - term repair, they are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to basis regression strategies and configuration opportunities at medium - and long - term key points [15][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Policy: The new gold tax policy from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, may accelerate investors' concentration on exchange channels [7]. - Market: Many brand investment gold bars on major e - commerce platforms are out of stock or have price increases [7]. - Outlook: Pay attention to US bank risks, with a trend strength of 0 [20][27]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Mines are expected to resume production, and the current rising price further boosts the resumption information [9]. - Demand: The power sector is about to enter the off - season, and the decline in power demand cannot be offset by the limited increase in energy - storage demand [9]. - Price: Short - term price correction is expected, but long - term optimism remains for next year. The resumption of production restricts the upward space, and it will fluctuate within a range [9][10][46]. Natural Rubber - Supply: Overseas raw material price increases slow down, and rainfall in domestic and overseas production areas affects tapping operations and output release [11]. - Inventory: As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.1 million tons, a decline of 1%, continuing the destocking state [11]. - Price: It is expected to be sorted around 15,000, and investors can consider low - level long - entry opportunities [11]. Methanol - Supply: In early November, with the concentrated resumption of production of devices, domestic daily production increased significantly, and import sources are still abundant in the short - term [12]. - Demand: The MTO industry has increased fundamental pressure, and profit compression restricts the upward space of methanol prices [14]. - Price: It is in a state of weak operation, and attention should be paid to whether the return of port goods to the inland can support prices [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market: The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading and the meeting of Sino - US leaders, along with weak macro - data, boost short - term bond market performance [15]. - Outlook: After short - term repair, it is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. Attention should be paid to basis regression strategies and configuration opportunities at key points [15][17].