贵金属周度观察20251102：宏观热点落地，贵金属震荡消化分歧-20251103

Report Title - "Precious Metals Weekly Observation" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is digesting differences through fluctuations after the landing of macro hot - spots. Gold and silver are expected to be in a volatile state. Gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages, and its fundamentals do not support a deep correction. The market needs to correct the "expectation - reality" pricing of macro hot - spot events and digest the fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. [1][12][13][14][15] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Precious Metals Observation - Price Fluctuation: Precious metals fluctuated around the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's October interest - rate decision. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions in the first half of the week led to a decline in the safe - haven appeal of precious metals, triggering technical selling. After the Fed's October interest - rate cut and the decision to stop shrinking the balance sheet in December, the precious metals prices stopped falling and entered a volatile phase. [3] - Fed's October Interest - Rate Decision: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00% in October and will stop shrinking the balance sheet in December. The market has fully priced in the October interest - rate cut, and the focus is on the subsequent interest - rate cut path. It is considered that the Fed is still likely to cut interest rates in December due to factors such as the cooling of the US employment market and the approaching of PCE to the target. Before the end of the data vacuum period caused by the US government shutdown, the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December may fluctuate repeatedly. [3][4][6] - Sino - US Trade Negotiations: On October 30, Sino - US leaders met in Busan, South Korea, reaching a series of practical achievements and setting a one - year tactical easing period for Sino - US economic and trade relations. This will reduce the short - term volatility in the market caused by trade issues, but structural contradictions still exist, and future games will focus more on the fields of technology and security. [7][8] - China's Gold Tax New Policy: The new policy mainly affects institutional and corporate participants in the physical gold extraction (out - of - warehouse) link in the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, without adding new taxes or increasing the tax burden on individuals. Its purposes include cracking down on tax arbitrage, strengthening compliance operations, and guiding the market direction. The impact on the domestic gold price is limited. [9][10][11] - Strategies: Gold and silver are both expected to be in a volatile state. Gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages, and the current adjustment may provide a good opportunity for layout after stabilization. It is recommended to pay attention to the US Supreme Court's tariff judgment at the beginning of November and the series of macro data after the US government resumes. [12][13] 2. Operating Logic and Views - Medium - and Long - Term Logic: In the context of the adjustment and reshaping of the global monetary system and high macro uncertainties, gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages due to factors such as the shaking of the US dollar's reserve currency status, high inflation expectations, and central banks' continuous gold purchases. [14] - Short - Term Logic: The one - year buffer period of Sino - US trade negotiations reduces short - term market volatility; the US government shutdown increases market concerns about the US economy; the Fed's October interest - rate cut and the possibility of a December cut make gold more attractive in a low - interest - rate environment; and geopolitical conflicts such as those in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela still exist. [14] - Views and Strategies: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. Gold's long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and the current adjustment is a short - term phenomenon. The market needs to digest the impact of macro events and Fed's policies. [14][15] 3. Important Data and Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to US Treasury bond interest rates, the relationship between US Treasury bond real yields and gold prices, precious metal ratios (such as gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio), and precious metal inventories and ETF holdings. [17][21][28][32]