玻璃纯碱：供需有支撑，价格下行空间有限

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass has resilient demand and low valuation, with supply and demand providing support, so it is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term [3] - For soda ash, short - term supply and demand are acceptable and the valuation is low, but the supply is at a high level and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Production is stable, with a daily output of 161,300 tons this week, the same as on the 23rd. The industry start - up rate is 76.35% and the capacity utilization rate is 80.63%, both unchanged from the 23rd. There are no changes in production lines this week, and next week's production is expected to remain stable [3] - Demand: The peak - season demand is supported, and the recent production and sales fluctuate with prices. Overall, downstream demand has strong resilience [3] - Inventory: Inventory is slightly reduced. Enterprise inventory is 65.79 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 823,000 heavy cases (-1.24%), and a year - on - year increase of 28.85%. The inventory days are 28 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period [3] - Basis/Spread: The basis strengthened this week, and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuated [3] - Valuation: Valuation is low [3] - Macro and Policy: Macro sentiment is changeable, and the impact has temporarily subsided [3] - Investment Viewpoint: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Mainly buy on dips in the short - term; Arbitrage: None; Risk concerns: Daily melting volume, production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3] Soda Ash - Supply: Supply is at a high level. This week's soda ash production is 757,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons (2.29%). There are no planned overhauls next week, and with some enterprises increasing their loads, the overall supply is expected to increase [4] - Demand: Short - term direct demand is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is stable. Downstream replenishment demand provides support [4] - Inventory: Inventory fluctuates. The total manufacturer inventory is 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons (-0.01%) compared to last Thursday. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation as supply recovers [4] - Basis/Spread: The basis fluctuated and strengthened this week, and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuated [4] - Valuation: Valuation is low [4] - Macro and Policy: Macro sentiment is changeable, and the impact has temporarily subsided [4] - Investment Viewpoint: Short - term supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low [4] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: None; Risk concerns: Alkali plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4] PART TWO: Futures and Spot Market Review - Glass: This week, the price fluctuated. The main contract closed at 1083 (-9), and the Shahe spot price was 1048 (-4). The 01 - 05 spread fluctuated, and the basis weakened [6][21] - Soda Ash: This week, the price fluctuated. The main contract closed at 1225 (-4), and the Shahe spot price was 1185 (0). The 01 - 05 spread fluctuated, and the basis strengthened [11][21] PART THREE: Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Production is stable. The daily output of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the start - up rate and capacity utilization rate are unchanged. Production profit fluctuates and weakens [23][24] - Demand: Downstream deep - processing orders are average, and real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor. However, inventory is slightly reduced [27][28] Soda Ash - Supply: Supply is at a high level. This week's production is 757,600 tons, with an increase in both light and heavy alkali production. Next week, supply is expected to increase. Alkali plant profits are decreasing [31][33] - Demand: Overall demand is neutral. Short - term direct demand is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is stable. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [37]