黄金、白银期货品种周报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. It's recommended to wait and see. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage and is currently at the end of the trend. It's also recommended to wait and see [7][30] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and is currently at the end of the trend - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the gold price showed a "first decline then rise" trend. It was affected by factors such as the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, profit - taking, and the rumor of the Philippine central bank's selling in the early stage, and then stabilized and rebounded supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut, technical support, and the continuous gold purchase of the Chinese central bank. In the long - term, the gold - buying trend of global central banks and the risk - aversion demand under the background of de - dollarization are the core drivers, but in the short - term, the uncertainty of the Fed's policy path and market sentiment fluctuations need to be concerned - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The gold contract 2512 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the upper resistance at 960 - 965 and the lower support at 920 - 925. It was recommended to wait and see - This week's strategy suggestion: The Shanghai gold main contract 2512 may fluctuate between 904 - 920 yuan/gram in the short term, with the upper pressure level at 930 - 940 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 900 - 904 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [10][11] 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents multiple data charts including the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage and is currently at the end of the trend - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the silver price showed a "decline and then stabilization" trend. It was affected by factors such as the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the improvement of London market liquidity, and profit - taking in the early stage, and then gradually recovered supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut, continuous reduction of COMEX inventory, and the effectiveness of technical support. The closing price at the end of the week returned to 11,400 yuan/ton (the same as the beginning of the week). In the long - term, the Fed's policy path, the recovery of industrial demand, and the change of global inventory structure need to be concerned - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [30][31] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver main contract 2512 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the upper resistance at 11,785 - 12,085 and the lower support at 10,915 - 11,285. It was recommended to wait and see - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver main contract 2512 may fluctuate between 11,000 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term, with the upper resistance level at 11,800 - 12,000 yuan/ton and the lower support level at 11,000 - 11,200 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [34][35] 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents multiple data charts including the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [45][47][49]