Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Manufacturing PMI - Supply: Manufacturing production contracted. In October, the production index was 49.7, a change of -2.2 from the previous month. The supplier delivery time index was 50, a change of -0.8 from the previous month [3]. - Demand: Manufacturing demand declined. In October, the new order index was 48.8, a change of -0.9 from the previous month. The new export order index was 45.9, a change of -1.9 from the previous month. The backlog of orders index was 44.5, a change of -0.7 from the previous month [3]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand relationship still needs improvement. In October, the supply - demand index (demand - supply) was -0.9, a change of 1.3 from the previous month, 1.1 from the same period last year, and 0.7 from the average of the past three years [3]. - Price: Manufacturing profitability contracted. In October, the raw material price index was 52.5, a change of -0.7 from the previous month. The ex - factory price index was 47.5, a change of -0.7 from the previous month. The difference between ex - factory price and raw material price was -5.0, a change of 0.0 from the previous month [3]. - Inventory: Pressure eased. In October, the finished goods inventory index was 48.1, a change of -0.1 from the previous month. The raw material inventory index was 47.3, a change of -1.2 from the previous month. The difference between new orders and finished goods inventory was 0.7, a change of -0.8 from the previous month [3]. Non - manufacturing PMI - Supply: Employment improved. In October, the employment index was 45.2, a change of 0.2 from the previous month. Among them, the construction industry was 39.9, a change of 0.2 from the previous month, and the service industry was 46.1, a change of 0.2 from the previous month. The supplier delivery time index was 50.9, a change of -0.2 from the previous month [4]. - Demand: Construction industry demand increased. In October, the new order index was 46, a change of 0.0 from the previous month. Among them, the construction industry was 45.9, a change of 3.7 from the previous month, and the service industry was 46.0, a change of -0.7 from the previous month. The new export order index was 46.2, a change of -3.6 from the previous month. The backlog of orders index was 43.6, a change of -0.8 from the previous month [4]. - Price: Prices rebounded. In October, the input price index was 49.4, a change of 0.4 from the previous month. Among them, the construction industry was 49.6, a change of 2.4 from the previous month, and the service industry was 49.4, a change of 0.1 from the previous month. The sales price index was 47.8, a change of 0.5 from the previous month. Among them, the construction industry was 48.4, a change of 0.3 from the previous month, and the service industry was 47.7, a change of 0.5 from the previous month [4]. - Inventory: Inventory increased. In October, the inventory index was 46, a change of 1.1 from the previous month and 0.3 from the same period last year [5]. Summary by Directory Macro Event - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0 (-0.8pct MoM); non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1 (+0.1pct MoM) [2] Overview - Affected by holidays, in October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0, a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50.0, a decline of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [9] Demand - Manufacturing: Affected by holidays, in October, the new order index was 48.8, a change of -0.9 from the previous month; the new export order index was 45.9, a change of -1.9 from the previous month; the backlog of orders index was 44.5, a change of -0.7 from the previous month [17] - Non - manufacturing: In October, the new order index was 46, a change of 0.0 from the previous month, indicating that non - manufacturing order demand still needs improvement. Among them, the construction industry was 45.9, a change of 3.7 from the previous month, indicating that the demand in the construction industry began to improve; the service industry was 46.0, a change of -0.7 from the previous month, indicating that the demand in the service industry declined significantly. The new export order index was 46.2, a change of -3.6 from the previous month, indicating a decline in export demand. The backlog of orders index was 43.6, a change of -0.8 from the previous month, indicating that the inventory of existing orders began to be reduced [17] Supply - Manufacturing: In October, the production index was 49.7, a change of -2.2 from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activities; the production and business activity expectation index was 52.8, a change of -1.3 from the previous month, indicating a decline in expectations; the supplier delivery time index was 50, a change of -0.8 from the previous month, indicating a decline in supply chain response; the employment index was 48.3, a change of -0.2 from the previous month, indicating a contraction in employment [19] - Non - manufacturing: In October, the employment index was 45.2, a change of 0.2 from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the employment contraction; among them, the construction industry was 39.9, a change of 0.2 from the previous month, indicating an improvement in employment, and the service industry was 46.1, a change of 0.2 from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in employment. The supplier delivery time index was 50.9, a change of -0.2 from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in supply chain response. The business activity expectation index was 56.1, a change of 0.4 from the previous month, indicating an improvement in activity sentiment; among them, the construction industry was 56.0, a change of 3.6 from the previous month, indicating an expansion in the construction industry, and the service industry was 56.1, a change of -0.2 from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the service industry [19] Price - Manufacturing: In October, the raw material price index was 52.5, a change of -0.7 from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing upstream costs; the ex - factory price index was 47.5, a change of -0.7 from the previous month, indicating continued price cuts for sales at the consumer end; the difference between ex - factory price and raw material price was -5.0, a change of 0.0 from the previous month, indicating that the contraction of corporate profit expectations still needs improvement [26] - Non - manufacturing: In October, the input price index was 49.4, a change of 0.4 from the previous month, indicating an increase in non - manufacturing costs. Among them, the construction industry was 49.6, a change of 2.4 from the previous month, indicating a rebound in construction industry costs; the service industry was 49.4, a change of 0.1 from the previous month, indicating a slight rebound in service industry costs. The sales price index was 47.8, a change of 0.5 from the previous month, indicating a price increase at the non - manufacturing consumer end. Among them, the construction industry was 48.4, a change of 0.3 from the previous month, indicating a price increase at the construction industry consumer end; the service industry was 47.7, a change of 0.5 from the previous month, indicating a price increase at the service industry consumer end [26] Inventory - Manufacturing: In October, the finished goods inventory index was 48.1, a change of -0.1 from the previous month, indicating a reduction in manufacturing de - stocking pressure; the raw material inventory index was 47.3, a change of -1.2 from the previous month, indicating de - stocking in the manufacturing upstream; the difference between new orders and finished goods inventory was 0.7, a change of -0.8 from the previous month, indicating a suspension of the improvement in manufacturing momentum during the de - stocking process [35] - Non - manufacturing: In October, the inventory index was 46, a change of 1.1 from the previous month and 0.3 from the same period last year, indicating an increase in non - manufacturing inventory [35] - Comprehensive: In October, the composite PMI index was 50, a change of -0.6 from the previous month and -0.8 from the same period last year, indicating a decline in the overall economic sentiment [35]
宏观景气度系列十：10月景气回落，制造业供需待改善
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-03 05:33