Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2512 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly showed a high - level oscillating trend, ranging from around 21,150 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 21,425 yuan/ton [9]. (2) Macroeconomic Aspect - In October, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing's prosperity level. The production index was 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing production. The new orders index was 48.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, showing a decline in manufacturing market demand. The raw material inventory index was 47.3%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued reduction in the inventory of major manufacturing raw materials. The employment index was 48.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in the employment prosperity of manufacturing enterprises [4][12][13]. (3) Supply - and - Demand Situation - As of September 2025, domestic bauxite imports were 15,880,586.84 tons, a decrease of 2,408,741.3 tons from the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, domestic bauxite imports remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. Domestic alumina production was 7.999 million tons, an increase of 74,300 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The domestic operating rate remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. Monthly electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year growth of 1.8%. From a seasonal perspective, the current production remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [17]. (4) Inventory Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 113,574 tons, a decrease of 4,594 tons from the previous week. As of October 30, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 459,525 tons, a decrease of 3,225 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.85%. As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 561,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous day [26].
铝周报：沪铝或高位震荡运行-20251103
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-11-03 05:37