煤焦：市场情绪偏暖，价格震荡偏强

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The macro atmosphere supports market sentiment. In the short term, the supply and demand of coal and coke have marginal fluctuations, generally remaining at a relatively high level. The inventory pressure is temporarily low. The prices should be treated with cautious optimism, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high level [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Content Market Performance - Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated strongly, and the spot market was generally stable and strong. The second round of coke price increase was implemented, and many coke enterprises started the third round of increase, which may be implemented this week [3]. Macro Environment - Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, and the Sino - US trade negotiation progressed smoothly with eased frictions. The 15th Five - Year Plan in China was released beyond market expectations, which enhanced market risk appetite and supported the recovery of market sentiment [3]. Fundamental Situation Supply - Domestically, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi that stopped or reduced production during the National Day basically returned to normal last week, with output quickly recovering. The coking coal output rose to 779,000 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons compared with the previous week. From the import side, high - frequency data showed that the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal rose to 164,300 tons last week, an increase of 56,000 tons compared with the previous week, returning to a relatively high level [3]. Demand - Steel mill profits continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped to about 45%. However, from past experience, the current profitability rate will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills for the time being. The decline in hot metal output last week was mainly due to environmental protection pressure in some areas of Hebei, where steel mills cut production. The average daily hot metal output dropped to 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,500 tons compared with the previous week. As the peak demand season approaches the end, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and the hot metal output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material side [3]