华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For building materials, it is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downwards and showing weak performance [1][2] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mine - end news [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Building materials continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, Shanghai aluminum showed strong performance. The Fed cut interest rates, but Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the market's expectation of another rate cut in December to 63% from over 90% earlier this week [1] - In October 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants increased more than expected, but the aluminum processing PMI dropped to 48.9%, below the boom - bust line, mainly due to weak terminal demand and high aluminum prices [2] - On Thursday last week, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 619,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous Thursday and a decrease of 31,000 tons from the post - holiday high. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 22,000 tons, and the weak inventory accumulation pressure in November is expected to have a negative impact on aluminum prices [2] Later Concerns - For building materials, pay attention to macro policies and downstream demand [2] - For aluminum ingots, pay attention to macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4]