多空博弈加剧，港口煤价高位震荡：动力煤周报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic thermal coal prices remained stable. As of October 31, the quotation for 5500K coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 768 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The coal market atmosphere was still optimistic, with good purchasing enthusiasm among traders and many coal mines raising prices. The market expected a supply contraction at the end of the year, which supported the coal price. Although the demand in southern coastal cities declined in the off - season after the October cooling, the low coal inventory in coastal power plants meant there was still restocking demand. The La Nina phenomenon that emerged in September 2025 might last until December 2025 - February 2026, but its impact on winter temperatures was uncertain. As of October 31, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.169 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800,000 tons and 2.729 million tons lower than the same period last year, which supported the port coal price. After the China - US summit, some tariffs were lowered and suspended for one year. Overall, some positive factors were mostly realized in October. As coal prices rose, market competition intensified, and it was expected that the upward trend of coal prices would slow down and remain in a high - level volatile state [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 News and Market Trends - In the first three quarters, the installed capacity of coal - fired power was 1.23 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The total social electricity consumption in the country was 7.77 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. It was expected that the electricity consumption growth rate in the fourth quarter would be higher than that in the third quarter, and the annual social electricity consumption would increase by about 5% year - on - year. From January to September, the coal mining and washing industry achieved a profit of 22.464 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.1%. The autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was completed one day ahead of schedule, and the daily freight volume was expected to quickly rebound to over 1.2 million tons [5][7][8][10]. 3.2 Market Data Tracking - On October 29, the Bohai Rim Thermal Coal Price Index was 685 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. As of October 30, the FOB price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal produced in Shanxi at Qinhuangdao Port was 768 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared to October 23. Shipping freight rates were adjusted downward this week. As of October 30, the China Coastal Coal Freight Composite Index was 943.06 points, a decrease of 6.35 points from October 23; the BDI freight index also declined. As of October 30, the spot prices of Q5800, Q5500, Q5000, and Q4500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port were 823.11, 768.00, 672.00, and 587.00 yuan/ton respectively. The main contract of Zhengzhou Coal was 33.4 yuan/ton higher than the 5500 - calorie thermal coal quotation at Qinhuangdao Port. As of October 30, the Q5500 Indonesian coal ex - warehouse price at Guangzhou Port was 768.62 yuan/ton, 0.62 yuan/ton higher than the domestic Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal quotation. As of October 24, the Newcastle thermal coal spot price was 103.74 US dollars/ton. As of October 28, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons, and the number of ships at anchor was 17 [13][15][23][24][26]. 3.3 Future Outlook - The market expected a supply contraction at the end of the year, which supported the coal price. The low coal inventory in coastal power plants meant there was still restocking demand. The La Nina phenomenon might last until December 2025 - February 2026, but its impact on winter temperatures was uncertain. The low inventory at ports supported the coal price. After the China - US summit, some tariffs were lowered and suspended for one year. Overall, it was expected that the upward trend of coal prices would slow down and remain in a high - level volatile state [3][28].