焦煤焦炭周报：强预期支撑，煤焦偏强震荡-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - Coke: Cost strongly supports coke, which is operating at a high level. After the second round of price increases for coke landed this week, the cost - strong support drove the spot market to run strongly. However, downstream steel mill profits shrank, and demand - side pressure emerged due to environmental restrictions in the north. As of the week ending October 31, the total daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight increase of 800 tons week - on - week. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 32 yuan/ton, improving by 9 yuan week - on - week but still in a loss. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, a sharp decrease of 35,400 tons per day week - on - week, and the profitability rate dropped by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Overall, coke supply stabilized, demand declined, and the fundamentals weakened marginally. But due to the improvement in Sino - US trade relations, coke futures remained at a high level [5][45]. - Coking Coal: Supported by strong expectations, coking coal fluctuated strongly. The spot market of coking coal was stable with a slight upward trend. On October 30, the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,390 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of the week ending October 31, the daily average output of coking coal from 523 coking coal mines was 758,000 tons, a slight decrease of 3,000 tons per day week - on - week. From October 20 - 25, the total number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 Port was 4,814, a decrease of 2,406 week - on - week. The daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was basically flat, with a slight increase of 800 tons. The upward drive mainly came from the macro - benefits of the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the strong expectations for coking coal supply from safety inspections and anti - cut - throat competition [6][48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Market - Coke: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the flat - position price was 1,570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.29%, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.10%. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the ex - warehouse price was 1,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4.03%, a month - on - month increase of 6.16%, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32% [7]. - Coking Coal: The current price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,390 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6.11%, a month - on - month increase of 8.59%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.80%. The current price of Australian - produced coking coal at the Jingtang Port was 1,660 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.22%, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.41%. The current price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at the Jingtang Port was 1,740 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.73% [7]. 3.1.2 Futures Market - The report presented the charts of the basis of coke 01 and 05 contracts, as well as coking coal 01 and 05 contracts, but no specific data analysis was provided [13][14][16] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - Coke: As of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 72.74%, a decrease of 0.42% week - on - week and 0.36% year - on - year. The daily coke output was 513,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons week - on - week and 17,000 tons year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mill coking plants was 85.21%, an increase of 0.18% week - on - week and a decrease of 1.37% year - on - year. The daily output was 462,100 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 6,800 tons year - on - year [17]. - Coking Coal: As of October 31, the operating rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, a decrease of 0.40% week - on - week. The daily average output of clean coal was 265,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week. The clean coal inventory was 2.844 million tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.80%, a decrease of 0.30% week - on - week and 3.40% year - on - year. The daily average output of coking coal from mines was 758,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons week - on - week and 22,000 tons year - on - year [21]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - Coke: As of October 31, the profitability rate of steel mills was 45.02%, a decrease of 2.60% week - on - week and 16.02% year - on - year. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.61%, a decrease of 1.33% week - on - week and an increase of 0.21% year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96% week - on - week and 0.69% year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons week - on - week and an increase of 8,900 tons year - on - year [23]. - Coking Coal: As of October 31, the total inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 10.5248 million tons, with an available days of 12.3 days, corresponding to a daily consumption of 855,700 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons day - on - day. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.9632 million tons, with an available days of 13.36 days, corresponding to a daily consumption of 596,000 tons, a decrease of 17,100 tons day - on - day. The total daily consumption was 1.4517 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons day - on - day [26]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Coke: As of October 31, the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 375,200 tons, unchanged week - on - week and a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 598,700 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 214,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.291 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons week - on - week and an increase of 503,000 tons year - on - year. The total inventory of four major ports was 2.111 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons week - on - week and an increase of 330,000 tons year - on - year [28]. - Coking Coal: As of October 31, the clean coal inventory of 523 coking coal mines was 164,500 tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1.261 million tons year - on - year. The coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 10.5248 million tons, an increase of 227,800 tons week - on - week and an increase of 1.3877 million tons year - on - year. The total port inventory was 2.9015 million tons, an increase of 145,000 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1.3508 million tons year - on - year. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.9632 million tons, an increase of 133,600 tons week - on - week and an increase of 539,200 tons year - on - year [36]. 3.2.4 Coking Profit - As of October 31, the profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton week - on - week [44] 3.3 Conclusion - Coke: The second - round price increase landed, with cost strongly supporting the spot market. However, demand - side pressure emerged. The daily average coke output was basically stable, and coking plants were still in a loss, with a desire to raise prices. The daily average pig iron output of steel mills decreased significantly, and the profitability rate declined. Overall, the fundamentals weakened marginally, but the market atmosphere improved, and coke futures remained at a high level [45]. - Coking Coal: The spot market was stable with a slight upward trend. The supply - demand pattern did not change significantly, and the upward drive came from macro - benefits of Sino - US trade relations and strong expectations for supply [48].