Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the weak market and the fluctuating decline of the oil and fat sector [1] - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The Y2601 soybean oil contract fell 0.81% to close at 8,128 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract dropped 3.92% to 8,764 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract decreased 3.47% to 9,422 yuan/ton [5][29] - In the medium term, the market will focus on the actual palm oil production changes in Southeast Asian producing areas, the demand of major consumer countries, and the final implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy. Without clear positive news, the oil and fat sector is expected to face pressure [8][30] Group 2: Important Information - Palm oil: Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025, were 1,501,945 tons, a 4.31% increase from the previous month. The Malaysian palm oil price dropped 4.86%. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10% to 56 million tons [6][29] - Soybean oil: China has agreed to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and at least 25 million tons annually for the next three years. Southeast Asian countries also plan to buy 19 million tons of US soybeans. The US soybean price rose 5.14% this week [7][30] Group 3: Spot Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [9] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10] - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [12] Group 4: Other Data - As of October 24, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 67,000 tons to 1.484 million tons. On October 29, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 19,000 tons to 639,000 tons [15] - As of October 31, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 8,402,200 tons [18] - As of October 31, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 242 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [19] - The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 64 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [20] - The basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 358 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22]
市场偏弱，油脂震荡下跌
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-11-03 05:42