日股狂欢，高市将把日本经济领向何方？：《海外非美经济探究》系列第三篇

Policy Differences - High City emphasizes "responsible active fiscal policy" with increased support for strategic industries like semiconductors, AI, and defense, contrasting with Abe's focus on long-term growth through deregulation and corporate governance reform[2] - High City's monetary policy is more cautious due to high inflation, making it difficult to replicate Abe's strong intervention in the central bank[2] - Abe's policies aimed at breaking deflation through aggressive monetary easing, while High City seeks to align monetary policy with fiscal expansion[12] Current Macroeconomic Environment - Japan's debt sustainability remains manageable, with domestic investors holding 88.1% of government bonds, reducing default risk[17] - Consumer confidence is expected to improve as real wages rise and the stock market wealth effect enhances household balance sheets, with leverage ratios nearing pre-pandemic levels[3] - Manufacturing investment is entering a favorable phase, supported by inventory replenishment cycles and fiscal policy backing, with corporate profit margins at high levels[3] Currency and Stock Market Outlook - The Japanese yen is expected to experience oscillating upward movement due to the normalization of monetary policy and the Fed's ongoing rate cuts, which will support yen appreciation[4] - The Nikkei 225 index has risen by 31.4% year-to-date as of October 31, 2025, with about half of this increase driven by expectations of High City's policies[4] - Future market performance will depend on the effectiveness of policy implementation, with external demand potentially weakened by a stronger yen impacting export competitiveness[4] Risks - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies could lead to fluctuations in overseas demand, while global geopolitical conflicts may exceed expectations[5]