铜铝分化：铜铝周报-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper: The Fed's hawkish stance and the historical high level are pressuring copper prices. Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, with a narrowing amplitude and a decline in open interest, indicating an increasing willingness of short - term bulls to close positions. After the October Fed interest - rate meeting, LME copper dropped significantly. The 25 - basis - point rate cut met market expectations, but internal policy disagreements and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts cooled the rate - cut expectation, which is negative for copper prices. Also, after the meeting and the APEC China - US summit, the copper market showed a trend of "good news exhausted." Copper prices have risen sharply in the short term and face historical high - level pressure, so bulls are more willing to close positions. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5]. - Aluminum: The expectation of "anti - involution" in China has heated up again, and aluminum prices are running strongly. Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated, and there was a sign of upward breakthrough in the night session on Friday. Compared with copper, China has stronger pricing power for aluminum. At the macro level, the decline in overseas rate - cut expectations is negative for aluminum prices, while the warming of the domestic macro - economy and the rising "anti - involution" expectation are positive. In the industry, both the inventories of electrolytic aluminum and downstream aluminum rods are decreasing, which also supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to the high - level pressure in November 2024 above and the support of the 10 - day moving average below [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - On October 30, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected in the October meeting. Milan supported a 50BP rate cut, and Schmid hoped to keep rates unchanged. The balance - sheet reduction will end on December 1. Powell said that a December rate cut is not a certainty, and officials have serious disagreements on December policies. The data vacuum due to the government shutdown has made more people cautious and inclined to keep rates unchanged. Powell also mentioned that this is a risk - management rate cut and that the current AI boom is different from the previous Internet bubble [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity - Price Trend - The report presents multiple charts related to copper's quantity - price trend, including copper futures price trends, copper's Shanghai - London ratio, 1 electrolytic copper's seasonal premium and discount, Shanghai copper's open interest, COMEX non - commercial long net positions, etc. [12][18][22] 2.2 Copper Ore Inventory Depletion - Charts show the port inventory of copper concentrates and the TC processing fees of copper concentrates, reflecting the situation of copper ore inventory depletion [26]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory - The report shows the domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper and the overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) of electrolytic copper [28]. 2.4 Downstream Initial - Stage - A chart shows the monthly capacity utilization rate of copper's downstream industries [31]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity - Price Trend - The report presents multiple charts related to aluminum's quantity - price trend, including aluminum price trends, aluminum's Shanghai - London ratio, LME aluminum's premium and discount, Shanghai aluminum's spot premium and discount, etc. [30][32][34] 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - Charts show the port inventory of bauxite and the price of alumina, reflecting the situation of the upstream industry chain [37][38]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Depletion - The report shows the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, indicating the inventory depletion situation [40]. 3.4 Downstream Initial - Stage - Charts show the capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the average processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods, reflecting the situation of the downstream initial - stage [43][46][48]. 4. Conclusion - Copper: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell, with a narrowing amplitude and a decline in open interest. After the October Fed interest - rate meeting, LME copper dropped significantly. The rate - cut expectation cooled, and the market showed a "good news exhausted" trend. Copper prices face historical high - level pressure, and bulls are more willing to close positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated, with a sign of upward breakthrough on Friday night. China has stronger pricing power for aluminum. Overseas rate - cut expectation decline is negative, while domestic macro - warming and "anti - involution" expectation rise are positive. Industry inventory depletion supports the futures price. Attention should be paid to the high - level pressure in November 2024 above and the support of the 10 - day moving average below [49].