产业因子主导甲醇偏弱运行：甲醇周报-20251103

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite positive macro - sentiment and cost - driven support from the rebound in coal futures prices, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract maintained a volatile downward trend last week due to the oversupply in the industry. The futures price dropped to a new low of 2199 yuan/ton this year, with a cumulative decline of 4.05% to 2180 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month spread remained at a discount of 80 yuan/ton. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - positive sentiment was digested, and the driving force of macro factors weakened. With high domestic methanol开工率, increasing import pressure, and high inventories at ports, although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin profit is not good, and the weak demand situation remains to be improved. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Methanol Spot Prices Declined Slightly, and Basis Discount Narrowed - In the week of October 31, 2025, the mainstream spot prices of methanol in East China, South China, and North China decreased slightly week - on - week. The basis discount between the East - China spot price and the methanol 2601 contract futures price narrowed slightly, with a basis discount of 1 yuan/ton as of the end of that week [9]. 1.2 Industry Factors Dominated, and Methanol Trended Weakly - Affected by industry oversupply, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract continued to decline last week, reaching a new low of 2199 yuan/ton this year, with a cumulative decline of 4.05% to 2180 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month spread remained at a discount of 80 yuan/ton [17]. 2. Analysis of the Methanol Market Supply - Demand Situation 2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Increased Slightly, and Weekly Output Decreased Slightly - After the holiday, with the resumption of some previously - overhauled devices, the domestic methanol supply pressure rebounded. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.88%, up 1.67% week - on - week, 1.17% month - on - month, and 1.78% year - on - year. The average weekly methanol output reached 196.81 tons, up 2.46 tons week - on - week, 9.54 tons month - on - month, and 8.51 tons year - on - year [18]. 2.2 More Overseas Methanol Ships Arrived at Ports, and Import Pressure Rebounded - In the fourth quarter, methanol supply in regions such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South America was sufficient, but international demand was weak. Some methanol was shipped to China. Although the operating rate of Iranian methanol decreased to 3.5 tons per day due to some device failures, it could still meet the shipping volume to China in the short term. In September 2025, China's methanol imports decreased to 142.69 tons month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that China's methanol imports will remain high in the fourth quarter [21][23]. 2.3 Methanol Downstream Demand was Weak, and Olefin Profit Rebounded Slightly - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and MTBE increased slightly week - on - week, while the operating rate of acetic acid decreased slightly. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin devices decreased slightly week - on - week. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures profit was 10 yuan/ton, up 164 yuan/ton week - on - week and 142 yuan/ton month - on - month [25]. 2.4 Port Inventories Increased Slightly, and Inland Inventories Increased Slightly - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the methanol inventories at ports in East and South China reached 128.29 tons, up 1.31 tons week - on - week, 1.48 tons month - on - month, and 26.19 tons year - on - year. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 36.04 tons, up 0.5 tons week - on - week, 4.04 tons month - on - month, and down 7.65 tons year - on - year [31]. 2.5 The Profitability of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Declined - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the manufacturing cost of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 2275 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2525 yuan/ton. With the methanol futures 2601 contract price at 2272 yuan/ton, the loss was 3 yuan/ton, and the cost - profit rate was about - 0.13%. In Shandong, the manufacturing cost was 2343 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2593 yuan/ton, with a loss of 71 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about - 3.03%. In Inner Mongolia, the manufacturing cost was 2267 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2518 yuan/ton, with a profit of 5 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 0.22% [34][35]. 3. Conclusion - After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - positive sentiment was digested, and the driving force of macro factors weakened. With high domestic methanol operating rate, increasing import pressure, and high port inventories, although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin profit is not good, and the weak demand situation remains to be improved. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [42]