Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The medium - term trend of the crude oil market is bearish, while short - term attention should be paid to the intensity of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the geopolitical risks in Venezuela [2]. - For precious metals, due to the internal policy differences of the Fed, trade easing signals, and the US government shutdown situation, the short - term market sentiment is volatile, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after the volatility decreases [3]. - The copper price has potential, and long - positions can be held with a support level of 86,000 [4]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is strong, and the upper resistance is the high point in November 2024 [5]. - Alumina is in a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space and mainly weak operation [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market for the time being [7]. - LME zinc has resistance at the 3050 - dollar level, while Shanghai zinc has strong support below and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton, with both long and short factors coexisting [9]. - The nickel price is weak and tends to move down [10]. - Tin prices are expected to be short - sold on rebounds, with the MA20 moving average as a reference [11]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the focus is on inventory reduction and policy increments [12]. - The short - term trend of polysilicon depends on policy news, and it is advisable to go long with a light position and pay attention to policy signals [13]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise with a limited increase, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of downstream polysilicon production cuts in November [14]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [15]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly [17][18]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are affected by the Sino - US leaders' negotiation, and the demand for both is acceptable [19][20]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is a crucial observation period for spot prices [21]. - For fuel oil, there are opportunities to layout the low - level spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [22]. - Asphalt has weak demand in the "peak season", and the medium - to - long - term de - stocking slowdown has limited support for prices [23]. - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil [24]. - Urea prices are expected to run at a low level in the short term [25]. - Methanol is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stop falling and stabilize [26]. - For pure benzene, it is advisable to conduct a reverse spread operation on the monthly spread and pay attention to the inventory accumulation rhythm [27]. - Styrene prices are expected to continue to be weak [28]. - Polypropylene, plastic, and propylene prices are under pressure due to supply - side problems [29]. - PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - PX and PTA are expected to continue the reverse spread strategy, and attention should be paid to energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and prices may follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in the middle of November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. - Glass prices are expected to have limited downward space, and it is advisable to hold short - put options [34]. - For natural rubber and synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35]. - Soda ash is expected to be short - sold at high prices in the long term and fluctuate with the upstream and macro - sentiment in the short term [36]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, pay attention to Sino - US trade policy adjustments and look for buying opportunities at low prices [37]. - For soybean oil and palm oil, pay attention to the supply of palm oil and Sino - US soybean trade guidance, and beware of oil price corrections [38]. - Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may face inventory accumulation risks and continue to be weak [39]. - For soybean No.1, pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic soybean policies [40]. - Corn prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom, and pay attention to import situations [41]. - For live pigs, there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [42]. - For eggs, look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the fourth quarter [43]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiation news [44]. - For sugar, pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - Apple prices are expected to be high in the early sales period, and pay attention to inventory situations [46]. - Wood prices are supported by low inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - Pulp prices are expected to be traded with a short - term strategy or wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory changes [48]. - For stock indices, focus on the technology growth sector and pay attention to domestic policy signals [49]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to end the steepening of the yield curve [50]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - Crude oil: Last week, international oil prices declined slightly, with Brent December contract down 0.94%. Voluntary - production - cut 8 countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year [2]. - Fuel oil & low - sulfur fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has a mixed situation, and the low - sulfur market is weak. There are opportunities for low - level spread layout between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [22]. - Asphalt: Northern construction is gradually stopping, and the "peak season" demand is weaker than expected, with limited medium - to - long - term support [23]. - Liquefied petroleum gas: The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and it is relatively strong compared to crude oil [24]. Metals - Copper: Last Friday, copper prices recovered some losses. The Shanghai copper has potential in terms of volume and price [4]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum continued to be strong last Friday, and the short - term trend is upward [5]. - Alumina: It is in a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the aluminum price and has no independent market [7]. - Zinc: LME zinc has resistance at the 3050 - dollar level, while Shanghai zinc has strong support below [8]. - Lead: Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [9]. - Nickel & stainless steel: The nickel price is weak and tends to move down [10]. - Tin: It is advisable to short - sell on rebounds, with the MA20 moving average as a reference [11]. - Carbonate lithium: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to de - stocking and policy increments [12]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has risen significantly, and the short - term trend depends on policy news [13]. - Industrial silicon: The price is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of downstream production cuts [14]. - Iron ore: The supply is high, and the demand support is weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [16]. - Coke & coking coal: Prices are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly [17][18]. - Manganese silicon & ferrosilicon: Affected by the Sino - US leaders' negotiation, and the demand is acceptable [19][20]. Chemicals - Urea: Prices are expected to run at a low level in the short term [25]. - Methanol: It is expected to continue to be weak in the short term but may gradually stabilize [26]. - Pure benzene: It is advisable to conduct a reverse spread operation on the monthly spread and pay attention to inventory accumulation [27]. - Styrene: Prices are expected to continue to be weak [28]. - Polypropylene & plastic & propylene: Prices are under pressure due to supply - side problems [29]. - PVC & caustic soda: PVC may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and caustic soda prices are expected to run at a low level [30]. - PX & PTA: Continue the reverse spread strategy and pay attention to energy geopolitical risks [31]. - Ethylene glycol: Expected to continue to accumulate inventory and follow the external market [32]. - Short - fiber & bottle - chip: Short - fiber may accumulate inventory in the middle of November, and bottle - chip prices are under pressure [33]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans & soybean meal: Pay attention to Sino - US trade policy adjustments and look for buying opportunities at low prices [37]. - Soybean oil & palm oil: Pay attention to palm oil supply and Sino - US soybean trade guidance, and beware of oil price corrections [38]. - Rapeseed & rapeseed oil: Rapeseed meal prices may be boosted, while rapeseed oil may face inventory accumulation risks [39]. - Soybean No.1: Pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic soybean policies [40]. - Corn: Prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom, and pay attention to import situations [41]. - Live pigs: There is a high probability of a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [42]. - Eggs: Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the fourth quarter [43]. - Cotton: Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiation news [44]. - Sugar: Pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [45]. - Apples: Prices are expected to be high in the early sales period, and pay attention to inventory situations [46]. Others - Container shipping index (European line): In a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and this week is a crucial observation period for spot prices [21]. - Wood: Prices are supported by low inventory, and it is advisable to wait and see [47]. - Pulp: Prices are expected to be traded with a short - term strategy or wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory changes [48]. - Stock indices: Focus on the technology growth sector and pay attention to domestic policy signals [49]. - Treasury bond futures: Expected to end the steepening of the yield curve [50].
国投期货综合晨报-20251103
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-03 05:56