2026 美国宏观展望：不均衡的经济“再加速”

Group 1 - The report highlights a "dual-speed economy" in the U.S., where AI-related investments are rapidly expanding while traditional economic growth lags slightly below trend levels [1][2][12] - In 2026, actual GDP growth is expected to accelerate from 2.0% in 2025 to 2.3%, with nominal growth rising from 4.6% to 5.1% [2][21] - AI investments are projected to maintain high growth rates, with specific sectors like computing and software seeing significant capital expenditures from major tech companies [2][30] Group 2 - Fiscal policy is anticipated to be more accommodative, with a projected federal deficit of 6.9% in 2026, primarily driven by tax cuts from the "Big and Beautiful" Act [3][22] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates 2-3 times in 2026, contributing to a more favorable financing environment [4][35] - The report indicates that the wealth effect from rising stock prices will support consumer spending, with a forecasted improvement in consumer consumption in 2026 [9][29] Group 3 - The report notes that AI investment as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise, potentially exceeding 5% by 2027, reflecting the ongoing integration of AI technologies into various sectors [12][32] - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is expected to enhance corporate investment through tax incentives, particularly benefiting sectors with high capital expenditure [30][34] - The anticipated recovery in consumer spending is supported by a healthy household balance sheet and the gradual easing of tariff-related uncertainties [25][29]