Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the over - increase, there may be a correction. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions when the price rises to a high level in November and maintain the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [1][79]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In October, the overall trend of the Shanghai aluminum market was a high - opening after the holiday, followed by a decline and then a gradual strengthening. After the double - festivals, the external precious metals and non - ferrous metals performed well, and aluminum followed the upward trend. However, due to a series of events such as China's export control on rare earths, anti - monopoly investigations, and tariff announcements, the aluminum price fluctuated. Later, with positive factors like the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan summary, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the aluminum price gradually strengthened [5][6]. 2. Macro and Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - Overseas Macro Indicators: The Federal Reserve has had a series of interest rate decisions including rate cuts and rate holds in 2024 - 2025, and an expected rate cut in December 2025. The European Central Bank has also adjusted its interest rates, with multiple rate cuts and rate holds. A series of macro - economic data such as the US federal funds rate, PCE price index, and euro - zone HICP are presented [12][14]. - Domestic Macro Indicators: Domestic GDP growth, social financing scale, PMI, exchange rates, CPI, PPI, and other data are shown. In September, China's exports and imports increased significantly year - on - year. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a series of consensus, and the external tariff environment is temporarily stable. It is expected that exports will strengthen month - on - month in November [19][25]. 3. Aluminum Raw Materials - Domestic Bauxite: The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening. Due to strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan, combined with the rainy season, bauxite mining activities are restricted. Although the price of domestic bauxite is firm, it will face pressure with the increase in imported bauxite after the end of the rainy season in Guinea [28]. - Imported Bauxite: In September 2025, the import volume of bauxite decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Guinea is the largest supplier. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the bauxite supply is expected to increase, and the price of imported bauxite is expected to decline [31]. 4. Alumina - At the end of October, the built - in production capacity of alumina remained unchanged month - on - month, while the operating capacity decreased. The domestic spot weighted index of alumina declined. Newly - put - into - production capacity in the first half of the year has entered a stable production state, but some small - scale and high - cost alumina enterprises in inland areas are facing losses and production cuts. In November, alumina is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and one can try to go long lightly near 2700 or sell out - of - the - money put options [34]. 5. Electrolytic Aluminum - Production Capacity: As of the end of October, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged month - on - month, and the operating capacity decreased slightly. The decrease was mainly due to the technical transformation of some electrolytic cells in Shanxi Shuozhou Energy. The remaining new production capacity expected to be put into operation this year is 110,000 tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly in November, but the new production capacity is very limited [38]. - Imports: In September 2025, the import volume of primary aluminum increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Russia and Indonesia are the main suppliers. In October, the loss of aluminum imports widened. In November, the London aluminum is expected to correct after over - increase, and the import of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase [41]. - Cost and Profit: The main costs of electrolytic aluminum are electricity, alumina, and pre - baked anodes. In October, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 14,980 yuan/ton, mainly due to the decline in alumina prices [43]. 6. Downstream Demand for Aluminum - Automobile: In September, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the export of automobiles reached a new high. With the implementation of the 69 - billion - yuan special treasury bond for consumer goods replacement and the peak season of automobile production and sales, the demand for aluminum in the automobile industry is expected to continue to grow [51]. - Real Estate: From January to September, real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, and other indicators declined year - on - year. Although some cities have introduced real - estate relaxation policies, the market is still weak, and this weak trend is expected to continue in November [55]. - Infrastructure: In September, the issuance of new local bonds decreased. The issuance progress of new local special bonds in the first nine months was relatively fast, which is expected to drive infrastructure investment. However, the high proportion of special bonds used for debt repayment will have a squeezing effect on infrastructure investment. Although the growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down recently, power grid investment has increased significantly, and the future demand for aluminum in infrastructure is still optimistic [58]. - Home Appliances: In September, the production and sales of home appliances were stable, and the export performance was stronger than the seasonal average. However, the production schedule of the three major white - goods in November decreased month - on - month, and the demand for aluminum in the home - appliance industry is expected to decrease [61]. - Photovoltaic: In September, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. With the release of provincial mechanism electricity prices and the start of some centralized photovoltaic projects, the photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to improve at a low level in November [66]. - Aluminum Products Export: In September, the export of aluminum products decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of aluminum products also decreased. In November, the London aluminum is expected to correct after over - increase, and the net export of aluminum products is expected to decline month - on - month [69]. 7. Inventory - The inventory depletion in October was satisfactory [70].
超涨后或有回调，考虑多单逢高止盈
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-03 06:02