利多因素消化，原油止涨回调

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - After the positive factors such as sanctions on Russian oil companies, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, and South American geopolitical risks were digested, the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures stopped rising and started to decline last week. The main logic in the crude oil market is still price pressure under loose supply and demand, and geopolitical disturbances cannot reverse the trend. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [6][75]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot price drop and basis widening: As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in Shengli Oilfield was $61.04 per barrel, equivalent to RMB 432.6 per barrel, a significant weekly decline of $10.0 per barrel. The main contract of domestic crude oil futures, 2512, closed at RMB 458.6 per barrel, a significant weekly decline of RMB 6.3 per barrel. The basis widened slightly to RMB 26.0 per barrel [9]. - Positive factors digested and oil price decline: After the positive factors were digested, the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures stopped rising and started to decline last week. The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed a volatile downward trend, with a cumulative weekly decline of 1.33% to RMB 458.7 per barrel [12]. 3.2 Aggravation of Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus and Faster Production Increase - OPEC+ production increase: Since April 2025, OPEC+ has gradually abandoned the production - cut strategy and shifted to a "production - increase for market share" strategy. In early November, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, the same as in October. It is expected that the daily new supply in the fourth quarter will exceed 430,000 barrels. In September 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels per day, a significant monthly increase of 524,000 barrels per day and a significant annual increase of 2.346 million barrels per day [22][23]. - Non - OPEC production at a high level: Non - OPEC+ countries' production expansion has further aggravated the supply surplus. As of the week ending October 24, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 420, a slight weekly increase of 2, and the daily US crude oil production was 13.644 million barrels, a slight weekly increase of 15,000 barrels per day and a significant annual increase of 144,000 barrels per day [39]. - End of the peak demand season in the Northern Hemisphere: After entering October, the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere ended, demand weakened, and inventory accumulation pressure increased. The three major energy institutions have different forecasts for the oil market. EIA and IEA are more pessimistic, expecting an increase in oil inventory and a decline in oil prices [41]. - US crude oil inventory and refinery utilization rate: As of the week ending October 24, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly by 6.858 million barrels week - on - week, and the refinery utilization rate was 86.6%, a slight weekly decline of 2.0 percentage points [45]. - Increase in China's crude oil imports in September 2025: In September 2025, China imported about 47.25 million tons of crude oil, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% and a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. Russia remained China's largest crude oil supplier, while imports from the US were almost zero [55][56]. 3.3 End of the Israel - Palestine Conflict and Cooling Geopolitical Risks - In October 2025, the Israel - Palestine conflict ended, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East decreased, causing the "geopolitical risk premium" to be squeezed out, and oil prices were under pressure. In contrast, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continued, and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries reduced Russia's refining capacity, increasing the supply of discounted crude oil in the global market [63][66]. 3.4 Significant Weekly Decrease in Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market - Since October 2025, the prices of international crude oil futures have been under pressure. As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil decreased by 19,105 contracts compared with the August average, a decline of 15.65%. As of October 21, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds decreased by 164,564 contracts compared with the September average, a decline of 76.06% [71]. 3.5 Conclusion - After the digestion of positive factors, the main logic in the crude oil market is price pressure under loose supply and demand. Geopolitical disturbances exist but are difficult to reverse the trend. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [75].