长江期货贵金属周报：中美谈判落地，价格延续震荡-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The Sino - US negotiation has concluded, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The market is still skeptical about the tariff details. After the correction, precious metals rebounded. There is a divergence in the market regarding whether there will be an interest rate cut in December, and the expected end - point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered compared to the previous period. The Fed meeting minutes show that most officials believe it may be appropriate to further ease policies this year. The influence of Trump on the Fed's independence is emerging, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Although Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, it is not certain that the Fed will further cut interest rates at the December monetary policy meeting. With the US economic data trending weaker and concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, it is expected that the medium - term prices of precious metals will still be supported, while the short - term prices are still in an adjustment state. It is recommended to pay attention to the US ADP employment data to be released this Wednesday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Gold: Due to the conclusion of the Sino - US negotiation, market doubts about tariff details, and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, the price of US gold declined. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4013 per ounce, down 2.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4100, and the lower support level is $3950 [6]. - Silver: Affected by the same factors, the price of US silver showed a weak oscillation. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 0.3%, closing at $48.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $47, and the upper resistance level is $49.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly Viewpoint The factors mentioned above led to the correction and subsequent rebound of precious metals. The market is divided on the December interest - rate cut, and the expected end - point of this round of cuts has been lowered. The Fed may further ease policies, but a December cut is not guaranteed. With the weakening US economic data and concerns about fiscal and Fed independence, precious metals are expected to be supported in the medium - term but are in short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the US ADP employment data on Wednesday [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar and pound - US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance - sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific analysis of these indicators is provided in the text [15][17][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week The announced value of the US October Chicago PMI was 43.8, higher than the expected value of 42.3 and the previous value of 40.6 [26]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Sino - US Negotiation: The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. China will adjust counter - measures accordingly. Both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures. The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control announced on September 29 for one year, and China will suspend relevant export - control measures announced on October 9 for one year and study specific plans [27]. - Fed: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 - 4.0% at the October FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations, and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1. Powell said that the government "shutdown" affects the economy, but the impact will reverse after the "shutdown" ends. A further interest - rate cut at the December meeting is not certain [27]. - European Central Bank: The ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% at the interest - rate meeting. This is the third consecutive time it has kept rates unchanged. The last rate cut was in June when the euro - area inflation rate reached the 2% target [27]. 3.6 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 22,053.63 kg to 1,187,159.84 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 801 kg to 87,816 kg [13][31]. - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 451,258.42 kg to 15,005,532.25 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 573 kg to 665,544 kg [13][31]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - Gold: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from the previous week [13][36]. - Silver: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from the previous week [13][36]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Monday (November 3), 23:00, the US October ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. - On Wednesday (November 5), 21:15, the change in the US October ADP employment number will be announced [38].