Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade within a range. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, Fed rate cuts, China-US talks, the Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations. The cost side provides short-term support at the bottom, but due to insufficient supply-demand improvements, upward pressure remains high. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6900, while the PP main contract is expected to weaken with support at 6600. The LP spread is expected to widen [8][9] - Plastics still have supply-demand contradictions and are expected to move in a sideways pattern [10] - PP faces significant trend pressure and is expected to weaken in the short term [51] Summary by Directory Plastic Market Review - On October 31, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,899 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3.55%. The average price of LDPE was 9,136.67 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.92%. The average price of HDPE was 7,650 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3.32%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,421.76 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.70%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 522.76 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 31.68%. The 1-5 month spread was -75 yuan/ton (-178) [12] Key Data Tracking - Month Spread: The 1-5 month spread was -75 yuan/ton (-178), the 5-9 month spread was -53 yuan/ton (-39), and the 9-1 month spread was 128 yuan/ton (+217) [19] - Spot Price: The spot prices of various polyethylene products in different regions showed different degrees of change, with some prices rising and some falling [20][21] - Cost: In October, WTI crude oil closed at $60.88 per barrel, a decrease of $1.55 from the previous month, and Brent crude oil closed at $64.58 per barrel, a decrease of $1.57 from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,090 yuan/ton (+10) [23] - Profit: The profit of oil-based PE was -357 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the profit of coal-based PE was 201 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan/ton from the previous month [28] - Supply: The production start-up rate of polyethylene in China this month was 80.86%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points from the end of last month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 643,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.71%. The maintenance of petrochemical enterprise equipment remained at a high level this week, with a maintenance loss of 112,100 tons, an increase of 54,000 tons from last week [33] - 2025 Production Plan: A total of 5.43 million tons of new polyethylene production capacity is planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already in operation and some still under construction [36] - Maintenance Statistics: Multiple polyethylene production lines of various enterprises are under maintenance, with some having uncertain restart times [38] - Demand: The overall start-up rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 49.53%, an increase of 16.67% from the end of last month; the start-up rate of PE packaging film was 51.30%, a decrease of 1.07% from the end of last month; the start-up rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, unchanged from the end of last month [39] - Downstream Production Ratio: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 33.5%, which is 1.8% different from the annual average level. The difference between the high-pressure film and the annual average data is significant, currently accounting for 8.8%, which is 1.8% different from the annual average level [43] - Inventory: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 527,400 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from the end of last month, a month-on-month decrease of 1.38% [45] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,706 lots, a decrease of 30 lots from the end of last month [48] PP Market Review - On October 31, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 262 yuan/ton from the end of last month, a month-on-month decrease of 3.82% [52] Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price: The prices of various polypropylene products showed different degrees of change, with some prices rising and some falling [54][56] - Basis: On October 31, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6,723.33 yuan/ton (-2.84). The PP basis was 133 yuan/ton (+65), and the basis widened. The 1-5 month spread was -40 yuan/ton (-19), and the month spread narrowed [58] - Month Spread: The 1-5 month spread was -84 yuan/ton (-128), the 5-9 month spread was -19 yuan/ton (-85), and the 9-1 month spread was 103 yuan/ton (+213) [63] - Cost: In October, WTI crude oil closed at $60.88 per barrel, a decrease of $1.55 from the previous month, and Brent crude oil closed at $64.58 per barrel, a decrease of $1.57 from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,090 yuan/ton (+10) [68] - Profit: The profit of oil-based PP was -606.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 113.03 yuan/ton from the end of last month, and the profit of coal-based PP was -269.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 607.60 yuan/ton from the end of last month [73] - Supply: The start-up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 77.06%, an increase of 1.54 percentage points from the end of last month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 789,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.48%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 78,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.82% [77] - Maintenance Statistics: Multiple PP production lines of various enterprises are under maintenance, with some having uncertain restart times [80] - Demand: The average start-up rate of downstream industries this week was 52.61% (+0.30). The start-up rate of plastic weaving was 44.20% (-0.20%), the start-up rate of BOPP was 61.57% (+0.16%), the start-up rate of injection molding was 59.06% (+0.72%), and the start-up rate of pipes was 36.807% (-0.07%) [82] - Import and Export Profit: The import profit of polypropylene this week was -$337.83 per ton, an increase of $208.99 from last month, and the export profit was -$31.12 per ton, a decrease of $23.89 from last month [87] - Inventory: The domestic inventory of polypropylene this week was 595,100 tons (-6.80%); the inventory of the two major state-owned oil companies decreased by 9.19% month-on-month, the inventory of traders decreased by 2.91% month-on-month, and the port inventory decreased by 2.25% month-on-month [90] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,569 lots, an increase of 471 lots from the end of last month [103]
长江期货聚烯烃月报-20251103
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-03 05:59