Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc., on November 3, 2025. The trends include upward, downward, and fluctuating movements, and the intensity of the trends is also indicated [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 921.92 yuan, up 1.07% [2][5]. - Silver: It is expected to rebound in a fluctuating manner. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 11,441 yuan, up 1.66% [2][5]. Base Metals - Copper: Lacks a clear driving force, and the price will fluctuate. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 87,010 yuan, down 1.08% [2][11]. - Zinc: Will fluctuate within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22,355 yuan [14]. - Lead: The continuous reduction of overseas inventories supports the price. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 17,390 yuan, up 0.23% [2][17]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 283,910 yuan, up 0.11% [2][19]. - Aluminum: The center of gravity will move upward. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 21,300 yuan [22]. - Alumina: It is anchored by supply reduction. The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view. The price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2,793 yuan [22]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It will run strongly. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20,805 yuan [22]. - Nickel: The accumulation of inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while the uncertainty at the ore end provides support. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,590 yuan [25]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price will fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan [25]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The expectation of复产 restricts the upward space, and it will fluctuate within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 2511 contract closed at 79,300 yuan [28]. - Industrial Silicon: The reduction of warehouse receipts provides support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Si2601 contract closed at 9,100 yuan [32][33]. - Polysilicon: Driven by positive sentiment, the futures price has risen. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the PS2601 contract closed at 56,410 yuan [33]. - Iron Ore: It will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 12601 contract closed at 800 yuan, down 0.31% [36]. - Rebar: Affected by sector sentiment, it will fluctuate widely. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the RB2601 contract closed at 3,106 yuan, down 0.48% [41][42]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by sector sentiment, it will fluctuate widely. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the HC2601 contract closed at 3,308 yuan, down 0.72% [42]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, it will fluctuate weakly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the silicon ferrosilicon 2601 contract closed at 5,500 yuan [46]. - Manganese Silicide: Affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, it will fluctuate weakly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the manganese silicide 2601 contract closed at 5,772 yuan [46]. - Coke: It will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the J2601 contract closed at 1,777 yuan, down 0.5% [50][51]. - Coking Coal: Driven by macro - economic factors and sector themes, it will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the JM2601 contract closed at 1,286 yuan, down 0.2% [51]. - Log: It will fluctuate repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 2511 contract closed at 743 yuan [53][54]. - Rubber: It will run in a fluctuating manner. The price and trend intensity are not specified in the provided text [57]. Others - Fuel Oil: It will fluctuate strongly, and the volatility will continue to increase [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It continued to strengthen at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market reached a record high for the year [4]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): It will consolidate in a fluctuating manner [4]. - Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip: They will return to fundamentals and fluctuate in the short term. The strategy is to go long on PF and short on PR [4]. - Palm Oil: The driving force for the oil market is lacking, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [4]. - Soybean Oil: The rebound of US soybeans supports the expansion of the soybean - palm oil spread [4]. - Soybean Meal: US soybeans reached a new high, and the Dalian soybean meal may follow and fluctuate strongly [4]. - Soybean: It may fluctuate strongly [4]. - Corn: It will run in a fluctuating manner [4]. - Sugar: It will mainly consolidate within a range [4]. - Cotton: The impact of the seed cotton price on the cotton futures has weakened [4]. - Egg: It will adjust in a fluctuating manner [4]. - Live Pig: The price center may further decline [4]. - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251103
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-03 05:57