碳酸锂周报：下游需求支撑，价格偏强震荡-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of domestic lithium carbonate remains in a tight balance before the issue of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi is clearly resolved. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported, and it is likely to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend. Traders are advised to be cautious and pay attention to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Views - Supply Side - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's lithium carbonate production increased by 150 tons week - on - week to 23,320 tons, and October's production increased by 10% month - on - month to 105,040 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has been confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In Q3, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited, with most mainstream Australian mines reducing their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In September 2025, China imported 711,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. Lithium carbonate imports in September were 19,597 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers producing lithium carbonate from externally purchased lithium ore. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes have some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5]. - Demand Side - Overall production scheduling in October increased month - on - month, and in September, the production scheduling of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% month - on - month and 35.4% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 26.7 GWh, an 18.2% month - on - month and 28.3% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 146.5 GWh, a 9.0% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax at the policy level are also expected to continuously support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. - Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a destocking state. Factory inventory decreased by 1,245 tons, market inventory decreased by 59 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 1,078 tons [6]. 3.2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple sets of data on lithium carbonate, including historical price trends of spot -含税 average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, and production proportion of lithium carbonate from different raw materials in October 2024. It also shows data on battery production (including power and other batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries), production and loading volume differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, and production of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium. In addition, it includes price data of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as import volume data of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [8][9][11][13][23][24][26][30][31][36][38][42].