Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. - For stock index futures, the risk of a significant decline is low, and one can choose the right time to go long [8][9]. - For precious metals, the short - term pricing is relatively full. After taking profits on long positions, one can wait and see [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the prices may remain weak in the medium term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage their positions carefully [13]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels and manage their positions carefully [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage their positions carefully [17]. - For ferroalloys, there may be short - term supply surplus. One can consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [20]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [21][22]. - For fuel oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [24][25]. - For polyolefins, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [26][27]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to fluctuate [28][29]. - For natural rubber, one can focus on long - buying opportunities [30][31]. - For PVC, one should focus on changes in the supply side [32][33]. - For urea, the downside space is limited [34][35]. - For p - xylene (PX), in the short term, it may fluctuate and adjust. One can participate within the range, control positions, and be vigilant about crude oil changes [36]. - For PTA, in the short term, it may fluctuate. One should view it with caution, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [37]. - For ethylene glycol, in the short term, it may fluctuate. One can participate within the range and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. - For short - fiber, in the short term, it may fluctuate following the cost. One should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. - For bottle chips, in the future, it is expected to fluctuate following the cost. One should control risks [41][42]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - For copper, it may enter a sideways consolidation phase after the previous rise [44][45]. - For aluminum, it may maintain a high - level oscillation [45][46]. - For zinc, it is expected to continue to oscillate [47][48]. - For lead, be cautious about chasing long positions [48][49]. - For tin, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [50]. - For nickel, it is expected to oscillate [52]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, one can consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at the support level after adjustment, and temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [53][55]. - For palm oil, one can consider buying on pullbacks [56][57]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, one can consider buying rapeseed oil on pullbacks [58][60]. - For cotton, the upside space of cotton prices is expected to be limited [63][64]. - For sugar, there is certain support below the price [65][68]. - For apples, it is expected to run strongly [69][70]. - For live pigs, one can consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds [71][73]. - For eggs, one can continue to hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [74][75]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch may follow the corn market [77][78]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed with mixed performance. The central bank conducted 355.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 187.1 billion yuan. China's October official manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level [5]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The CSRC and the Asset Management Association of China issued relevant guidelines and rules for public - offering funds. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that the risk of a significant decline is low, and one can choose the right time to go long [7][8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The eurozone's October CPI and core CPI data were released. The government issued a tax policy on gold. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are favorable for precious metals. However, the recent increase has been large, and the short - term pricing is relatively full [10][11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly corrected. In the medium term, the demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, but there is a slight improvement in the traditional peak season. The supply side has over - capacity, and the weekly output of rebar has declined. The inventory is higher than last year, and the price may remain weak. The trend of hot - rolled coils may be similar to that of rebar. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly corrected. The national hot - metal daily output has decreased, the supply of iron ore is expected to increase year - on - year in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has risen. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures slightly declined. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the demand is fair. The third - round price increase of coke procurement has started but has not been fully implemented. The supply of coke has decreased, and it is uncertain whether steel mills will accept the price increase. The futures may continue to be strong in the short term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore has increased slightly, and the cost of ferroalloys has risen. The output of ferroalloys remains high, and the demand is weak, with short - term supply surplus. One can consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [19][20]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated within a range. The CFTC持仓 report was suspended. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased. The proportion of Russian crude oil in HPCL's supply has decreased. It is expected that it is difficult for US crude oil production to increase significantly, and market attention has shifted to the OPEC meeting. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [21][22]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil slightly oscillated. The supply of Singapore fuel oil has recovered, which is negative for prices. Russia being sanctioned and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive for prices. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [23][24][25]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the price of polyolefins declined. In November, the impact of maintenance is expected to be 416,000 tons, and the inventory is low year - on - year. November is the peak season for demand. There is support from maintenance and inventory, and the market is expected to rebound. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The cost is weak, the supply has decreased slightly, the demand has declined, and the inventory is expected to decrease. It is expected to oscillate [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The supply in overseas and domestic production areas has been affected by weather, and the demand has declined. The inventory has decreased. One should focus on long - buying opportunities [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply is in excess, but the downward space is limited. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, the pre - sales have increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. One should focus on changes in the supply side [32][33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures declined. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is affected by the end of autumn fertilizer orders, the cost is stable, and the profit has narrowed. The inventory is lower than expected. The downside space is limited [34][35]. p - Xylene (PX) - On the previous trading day, PX futures declined. The PX load has increased, and the import has decreased. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and it may fluctuate and adjust [36]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The supply load has decreased slightly, and the demand is stable. The processing fee has slightly recovered, and the inventory is low. In the short term, it may fluctuate, and one should pay attention to oil price changes [37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply load has increased, the port inventory has decreased, and the demand support is limited. In the short term, it may fluctuate, and one should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38][39]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply load has decreased, the demand has improved slightly, and the processing fee has adjusted. In the short term, it may fluctuate following the cost, and one should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The processing fee has decreased, the supply load has increased, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to fluctuate following the cost [41][42]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is at a high level, and the consumption in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased, and one should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures declined. The Sino - US summit has ended, and the Fed has cut interest rates, but the overall progress is not as optimistic as expected. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and high copper prices have suppressed consumption. The inventory has increased slightly. It may enter a sideways consolidation phase [44][45]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures declined. The supply of bauxite in the north has not recovered, and the alumina market is in excess supply. The production of electrolytic aluminum may be affected by winter restrictions, and the consumption is expected to decline. The inventory has increased slightly. It may maintain a high - level oscillation [45][46]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures declined. The production of zinc mines is restricted, and the processing fee is under pressure. The demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to continue to oscillate [47][48]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures declined. The production of primary lead is stable, and the production of recycled lead has recovered slowly. High lead prices have suppressed demand, and the inventory has decreased. One should be cautious about chasing long positions [48][49]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate and strengthen [50]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The Fed has cut interest rates, and the Sino - US talks have released positive signals. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be affected by policy changes, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory is relatively stable but at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [51][52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean - meal futures rose, and soybean - oil futures declined. Sino - US trade friction is expected to improve, and Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. The soybean - crushing volume remains high, the inventory of soybean meal has decreased, and the inventory of soybean oil is still under pressure. The consumption of soybean oil is affected, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. One can consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at the support level after adjustment, and temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [53][55]. Palm Oil - On the previous trading day, palm - oil futures declined. Malaysian palm - oil exports have increased, and China's palm - oil imports have decreased. The inventory is at a medium level. One can consider buying on pullbacks [56][57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil futures were affected by the price of other oils. Sino - US trade negotiations have certain results. The import of rapeseed and rapeseed meal has decreased, and the import of rapeseed oil has increased. The inventory of rapeseed has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a high level. One can consider buying rapeseed oil on pullbacks [58][60]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, cotton futures oscillated. Sino - US leaders have met, and textile and clothing exports have shown a stable performance. The domestic cotton harvest is earlier, and the planting area and output have increased. The cotton price is expected to have limited upside space [61][63][64]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, sugar futures declined. Brazil's sugar production has slightly exceeded expectations, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. China's sugar import has increased year - on - year. The northern region has started sugar production, and the southern region will start in December. There is certain support below the price [65][68]. Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated at a high level. The opening price of late - maturing apples is higher than last year, and the quality is poor. It is expected to run strongly [69][70]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live - pig futures declined. The pig price is expected to decline weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the month, and one can consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds [71][73]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures declined. The cost of eggs has increased slightly, and the profit is low. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the supply is expected to increase. The consumption is weak after the festival. One can continue to hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [74][75]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and starch futures rose. The price of corn is affected by the price of soybeans. The new - season corn harvest is almost completed, and the inventory of the northern port is expected to increase. The demand for corn is growing slightly, and the price may be under pressure. The demand for starch has improved slightly, and it may follow the corn market [76][77][78].
西南期货早间评论-20251103
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-11-03 06:03