金融期货早班车-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the index may enter a volatile trend due to the unclear macro - drivers after the earnings season. In the long - term, it is advisable to maintain a long - position on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties at low prices [2] - For the short - term, the trading strategy for bonds is bullish, as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds is cost - effective. For the medium - and long - term, considering the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is suggested to hedge T and TL contracts at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 31, the four major A - share stock indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.81% to 3954.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.14% to 13378.21 points, the ChiNext Index declined 2.31% to 3187.53 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index decreased 3.13% to 1415.53 points. The market turnover was 2349.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 114.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, pharmaceutical biology (+2.42%), media (+2.39%), and commercial retail (+2.08%) led the gains, while communication (-4.07%), electronics (-3.06%), and non - ferrous metals (-2.03%) led the losses [1] - From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IH>IF. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3759, 131, and 1548 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 24.6 billion, - 19.1 billion, 0.4 billion, and 43.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +22.1 billion, +10.8 billion, - 22.3 billion, and - 10.5 billion yuan respectively [1] - The basis and basis annualized yields of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 138.47, 88.6, 9.27, - 3.65 points and - 12.81%, - 8.39%, - 1.39%, 0.84% respectively, and their three - year historical quantiles were 24%, 25%, 45%, and 56% respectively [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 31, the short - term interest rates of interest - rate bonds decreased while the long - term ones increased. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.02%, TF dropped 0.01%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.42% [2] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.038, and an IRR of 1.76%. For the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.45bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.057, and an IRR of 1.9%. For the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 220019.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.023, and an IRR of 1.65%. For the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 2.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.279, and an IRR of 3.14% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank's currency injection was 355.1 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 168 billion yuan, and the net injection was 187.1 billion yuan [3] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recently, except for the manufacturing sector, the prosperity of each sector is lower than the same period in previous years [9]