Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - After the China-US trade negotiations, third-quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, the market enters a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies, lacking catalysts for direction. It is expected to enter a period of oscillation to await new changes at the end of the year. In November, the market style is expected to rebalance and may return to a barbell structure. The stock index is expected to oscillate, and the MACD indicator shows that the market index may oscillate weakly [11]. - The current bond market environment is still conducive to the evolution of the spread compression strategy. However, there are still certain risks in the pricing of short-term treasury bonds being excessively lower than the policy rate and the recent increase in institutional position congestion. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation mindset and avoid excessive expectations for unilateral market trends. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate, and the MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate strongly [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - Strategy Outlook: The stock index is expected to oscillate within a range [10]. - Stock Index Trend Review: Most stocks rose, with over 3,700 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rising. The total market turnover was 2.35 trillion yuan, and the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.32 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 100 billion yuan from the previous trading day [11]. - Core View: After the end of relevant events, the market enters a vacuum period, lacking catalysts for direction, and is expected to oscillate. The market style in November is expected to rebalance and may return to a barbell structure. The stock index is expected to oscillate [11]. - Technical Analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may oscillate weakly [11]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - Treasury Bond Trend Review: The 30-year main contract rose 0.42%, the 10-year main contract rose 0.04%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.01%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.02% [13]. - Core View: The current bond market environment is conducive to the spread compression strategy, but there are risks in short-term treasury bond pricing and institutional position congestion. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [13]. - Technical Analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate strongly [13]. - Strategy Outlook: Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [13]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In October, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, lower than the consensus expectations of Bloomberg and Reuters. Seasonally, it fell more significantly than usual, and the absolute value was the lowest in the same period since 2013. The PMI of large enterprises also fell to 49.9%, returning to the contraction range [20]. 3.2.2 CPI - In September, the year-on-year change in the consumer price index was -0.3%, and the month-on-month change was +0.1%. The year-on-year change in the producer price index for industrial products was -2.3%, and the month-on-month change was flat. The CPI year-on-year remains negative, the year-on-year increase in the core CPI expands, gold jewelry and services are the main support for the CPI year-on-year, the year-on-year decline in the PPI narrows, and the month-on-month change is flat [23]. 3.2.3 Import and Export - In September, China's exports were $328.57 billion, imports were $238.12 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.45 billion. The significant rebound in export growth in September was mainly due to the base effect and seasonal factors. The two-year average growth rate continued to decline, and the month-on-month growth rate was weaker than the average from 2018 - 2023, indicating that the export performance in September was not as strong [24][25]. 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, both the profit growth rate and revenue growth rate rebounded. From January to August, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%. In August, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded rapidly to 20.4%, with a marginal increase of 21.9%. In August, industrial enterprise revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 1.0%. The increase in profit growth rate may be related to the recognition of investment income [29]. - Structurally, the rebound in profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state-owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy. From the perspective of revenue, the year-on-year growth rate of upstream manufacturing industries rebounded, while that of midstream and downstream industries declined, reflecting the impact of the "anti-involution" policy [32]. - At the end of August, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise finished product inventory fell by 0.1% to 2.3%, and the real inventory year-on-year growth rate fell by 0.9% to 5.4%. The de-stocking of real inventory was faster under the influence of the accelerated convergence of the PPI. The inventory turnover days remained the same as the previous period, and the accounts receivable turnover days increased slightly, indicating high operating pressure on enterprises [35]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In August, the production intensity declined, and the production slowdown in downstream industries was obvious. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value fell to 5.2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the service production index fell to 5.6%. The year-on-year growth rate of export delivery value turned negative for the first time since 2024, confirming the differentiation of mid - level production data [38]. 3.2.6 Fixed Asset Investment - In August, the growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to decline. The estimated single - month year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment fell to -6.3%, and the central value of the single - month year-on-year growth rate of private investment fell to -7.1%. The year-on-year growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate investment all declined [41]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In August, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales fell to 3.4%, and the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales above the designated size fell to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption. The three major national subsidy categories still contributed about 40% of social retail sales growth, indicating slow growth in other consumption categories [44]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In September, the new social financing was 3.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock fell to 8.7%, and after excluding government bonds, it remained flat at 5.9%. The growth rate of credit in the social financing caliber fell to 6.4%. The year-on-year decrease in social financing was mainly dragged down by government bonds and credit. The year-on-year growth of medium - and long - term household loans turned positive, but the year-on-year growth of medium - and long - term corporate loans was still lower. The M1 growth rate continued to rise, and the year-on-year growth of non - bank deposits turned negative [47].
股指或区间震荡，债市或震荡运行
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-03 06:10