贵金属宽幅波动，后续或逐步企稳

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals (AU, AG): Precious Metals Fluctuate Widely and May Gradually Stabilize Subsequently [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After recent significant adjustments, precious metal prices have a certain demand for stabilization and repair. The support below lies in high market uncertainty and the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle. However, due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations, a relatively strong US dollar index, and the possibility of marginal alleviation of the US government shutdown, the short - term unilateral upward space for precious metals may be limited. In the short term, precious metal prices may gradually stabilize and enter a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities of buying on dips after stabilization [7]. - The underlying logic of the long - term bull market for precious metals remains solid. The continuous increase in the US federal government debt will intensify the long - term weakening risk of the US dollar's credit. Coupled with the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the price center of gold will continue to move up steadily [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking - Price and Ratio: Last week, precious metal prices dropped significantly and then stabilized, but gold still closed down on the weekly chart. London spot gold decreased from $4111.555/oz to $4002.690/oz, a weekly decline of 2.65%. London spot silver increased slightly from $48.6235/oz to $48.6562/oz, a weekly increase of 0.07%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.66% to 80.58 [5][6]. - ETF and CFC Holdings: The gold SPDR - ETF持仓量 decreased by 7.73 tons to 1039.2 tons, a decline of 0.74%. The silver SLV - ETF持仓量 decreased by 230 tons to 15190 tons, a decline of 1.49%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 339 contracts to 266749 contracts, an increase of 0.13%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 738 contracts to 52276 contracts, an increase of 1.43% [6]. - Inventory Data: The SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.80 tons to 87.816 tons, an increase of 0.92%. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 22.05 tons to 1187.16 tons, a decrease of 1.82%. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 666 tons, an increase of 0.09%. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 451.26 tons to 15006 tons, a decrease of 2.92%. The SGE silver inventory decreased by 145.44 tons to 905 tons, a decrease of 13.84% [6]. PART TWO: Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking - Exchange Rates and Interest Rates: The US dollar index increased from 98.9417 to 99.7308, an increase of 0.80%. The US 2 - year Treasury yield increased from 3.4884% to 3.5736%, an increase of 2.44%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield increased from 4.0103% to 4.0833%, an increase of 1.82%. The US 10 - year real interest rate increased from 1.73% to 1.81%, an increase of 4.62% [6]. - Economic Data: The US GDP growth rate was strong, but the consumer confidence index declined again. The US manufacturing and service PMI both decreased. Retail sales data showed mixed performance. Employment cooled significantly, with the unemployment rate rising and wage growth slowing down. Inflation was relatively controllable, with core commodity inflation rising and core service inflation falling [58][59][60][65][70]. - Eurozone Data: The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while the service PMI declined. Inflation data in the eurozone and the UK showed different trends [78][79]. - Central Bank Gold Purchases: The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. As of the end of September 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces (about 2303.523 tons), an increase of 40,000 ounces (about 1.24 tons) month - on - month. In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. Although the pace of gold purchases by global central banks has slowed down, the demand for gold purchases is expected to remain [87].