宏观金融数据日报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, with the gradual release of positive factors such as the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations, market sentiment may shift from relatively optimistic to cautious. The stock index may enter a volatile phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index. In the long - term, the stock index still has room to rise, but the upward pace will not be rapid. It is recommended to choose the right time to go long and use the discount structure of stock index futures to enhance the advantage of long - term long strategies [7] 3. Summary according to Related Catalogs Interest Rate Products - DROO1 closed at 0.69 with a change of 1.32bp; DR007 closed at 1.46 with a change of - 4.67bp; GC001 closed at 1.32 with a change of 9.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.48 with a change of - 2.00bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a change of - 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year remained unchanged at 3.50; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.38 with a change of 0.01bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.57 with a change of 0.26bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.79 with a change of - 1.84bp; 10 - year US treasury bond remained unchanged at 4.11 [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 2.068 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases and 900 billion yuan in MLF injections in the open market. There were 867.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, 500 billion yuan in 182 - day outright reverse repurchases, and 700 billion yuan in MLF maturities. So, the net injection in the open market was 900.8 billion yuan [4] - This week, there will be 2.068 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, with 337.3 billion, 475.3 billion, 557.7 billion, 342.6 billion, and 355.1 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 700 billion yuan in 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Stock Index Futures - The closing prices and changes compared to the previous day of major stock indices: CSI 300 closed at 4641, down 1.47%; SSE 50 closed at 3012, down 1.15%; CSI 500 closed at 7331, down 0.74%; CSI 1000 closed at 7507, up 0.29%. The closing prices and changes of corresponding stock index futures: IF current - month contract closed at 4641, down 1.3%; IH current - month contract closed at 3017, down 1.0%; IC current - month contract closed at 7291, down 0.8%; IM current - month contract closed at 7440, unchanged [6] - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures: IF trading volume was 139,862, up 1.8%; IF position was 271,131, up 0.1%; IH trading volume was 63,349, down 0.9%; IH position was 99,608, down 2.4%; IC trading volume was 145,316, down 13.7%; IC position was 254,465, down 2.2%; IM trading volume was 253,282, up 1.9%; IM position was 362,383, down 1.8% [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.43% to 4640.7; SSE 50 fell 1.12% to 3011.6; CSI 500 rose 1% to 7331; CSI 1000 rose 1.18% to 7506.7. Among Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (4.3%), non - ferrous metals (2.6%), steel (2.6%), basic chemicals (2.5%), and comprehensive (2.3%) led the gains, while communication (- 3.6%), banking (- 2.2%), electronics (- 1.7%), building decoration (- 1.5%), and real estate (- 0.7%) led the losses. The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 2.0894 trillion, 1.9329 trillion, 2.0592 trillion, 2.2042 trillion, and 2.0923 trillion yuan respectively, and the average daily trading volume increased by 462.19 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] Stock Index Futures Basis - The basis of IF for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts was - 0.14%, 1.55%, 1.82%, and 2.30% respectively; the basis of IH was - 3.35%, - 0.94%, - 0.39%, and - 0.22% respectively; the basis of IC was 10.43%, 9.39%, 8.88%, and 9.22% respectively; the basis of IM was 17.17%, 14.33%, 12.04%, and 11.61% respectively [8]