国贸期货黑色金属周报-20251103

Report Overview - Report Title: [Black Metal Weekly Report] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Black Metal Research Center Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The emotional trading of steel has come to an end, and the focus has returned to the industrial supply side. The third round of price increase for coking coal and coke has been delayed, and the macro - level positive factors have been realized. There is no new driver for iron ore to break through the price range [3][7][41][5]. Summary by Category 1. Steel - Supply: Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, the weekly decline in hot - metal production accelerated, with a decrease of 3.5 to 236 million tons in the current week. Although the total production remains at a relatively high level in the same period of history, the overall production level is likely to be reduced in the future. The compression of steel mill production profit further intensifies, and a downward adjustment of production is a likely event [8]. - Demand: The inventory continues to decline, and the weekly apparent demand continues to improve, which is a safeguard to prevent the price from collapsing further. The overall demand this year shows characteristics of seasonal rigid demand remaining, insufficient speculative demand, and stable external demand [8]. - Inventory: The total steel inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the inventory pressure of some varieties is obvious. The total inventory of five major steel products is at a slightly high - neutral level, and the destocking slope during the golden September peak season is not ideal [8]. - Basis/Spread: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has decreased synchronously, with a more obvious decline in rebar. As of Friday, the basis of rb2601 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 84, a weekly decrease of 30; the basis of hc2601 in the East China region (Shanghai) is 22, a weekly decrease of 18 [8]. - Profit: The production profit of long - process steel mills is meager, and most electric - arc furnaces are in a loss state. However, due to the seasonal peak season, the terminal rigid demand and shipment situation are acceptable, and the market is in a weak balance [8]. - Valuation: The discount of the futures price on the disk has been repaired, and the relative valuation of the futures price has increased. In the industrial dimension, the production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is still not high [8]. - Macro and Risk Appetite: The emotional trading in the market due to important time points may have ended, and the focus is gradually returning to industrial contradictions [8]. - Investment View: It is recommended to wait and see. In the future, the steel production is likely to decline gradually. At the initial stage of production reduction, it may suppress the furnace materials, and in the second half, it may drive the sector to rise jointly [8]. - Trading Strategy: For single - sided trading, wait and see. For arbitrage, focus on whether the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar of the 01 contract is below 150 for a long - position layout. For futures - spot trading, roll and take profit on reverse spreads [8]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - Demand: The demand for steel is about to face seasonal weakening pressure. The apparent demand of five major steel products is 865.32 (+8.37) this week, and the production is 892.73 (+17.32). The steel inventory is still high, and the destocking slope is flat. The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills is 236.36 (-3.54), and the profit - making rate of steel mills is 45.02% (-2.60%) [42]. - Coking Coal Supply: The domestic coal mine supply is continuously restricted. Affected by production stoppages in some areas of Shanxi and Wuhai, the coking coal production has decreased again this week. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to more than 1,000 vehicles, but the supply of Mongolian No. 5 coal is still tight. The quotation of seaborne coal is stable with a slight upward trend [42]. - Coke Supply: The coke supply has increased slightly. This week, the daily average coke production is 110.8 (+0.1), and the coking profit is - 32 (+9). The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented, but the cost of raw coal is still rising, and the expansion of coking profit is limited [42]. - Inventory: The mine - end inventory continues to decline. Although the downstream procurement demand is still being released, steel mills have limited profit and low acceptance of high - priced raw materials [42]. - Basis/Spread: After the third - round price increase of coke is implemented, the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1,700, and the warehouse - receipt cost of port - trading is 1,715. The warehouse - receipt costs of Shanxi coal and Mongolian coal are between 1,350 - 1,400, but the actual warehouse - receipt cost should be lower due to warehouse - receipt processing issues [42]. - Profit: The profit - making rate of steel mills is 45.02% (-2.60%), and the coking profit is - 32 (+9) [42]. - Summary: The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has been realized, and the black - metal sector has risen and then fallen. Considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the decline in steel - mill profit - making rate, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation of coking coal and coke may ease. - Trading Strategy: For single - sided trading, focus on the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high support and consider going long in the medium - to - long term. For arbitrage, industrial customers can consider appropriate selling hedging on the 01 contract [42]. 3. Iron Ore - Supply: The previous shipping data showed a week - on - week decline of 32.9 million tons per day to 451 million tons per day, mainly due to seasonal factors. The total arrival volume in China decreased by 28.4 million tons per day week - on - week. There is no significant unexpected fluctuation in the supply side [91]. - Demand: The steel - mill hot - metal production has dropped significantly to 236.36 million tons (-3.54), and the profit - making rate of steel mills has also declined. Although the steel apparent demand has continued to rise in the short term, it will decline under the influence of seasonal factors in the future [91]. - Inventory: The inventory of 47 ports has increased by 163.44 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly under the situation of stable supply and weakening demand [91]. - Profit: The steel - mill profit continues to decline. Although steel mills will not actively shut down production on a large scale, the hot - metal production will decline in the short term due to environmental protection restrictions or other policy - related reasons [91]. - Valuation: The short - term valuation is at a relatively high - neutral level [91]. - Summary: The influence of macro - level sentiment has weakened this week. The supply of iron ore is in a reasonable fluctuation range. Under the influence of environmental protection restrictions and possible production cuts in Shanxi, the hot - metal production will remain around 235 in the short term, and the port inventory will continue to rise [91]. - Trading Strategy: For single - sided trading, try short - selling. For arbitrage, wait and see for the time being [91].