Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, the fundamentals of polypropylene are slightly better than those of polyethylene, but the boost from fundamentals to polyolefins may still be limited. If there is no substantial improvement in the macro - level, polyolefins are likely to continue to fluctuate [7] - The domestic macro - level has expectations of warming up, and the international macro - level also has the possibility of improvement [23] Summary by Directory 1. Macro - level China - In late September 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. In September 2025, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 300 billion yuan [8] - In October 2025, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [8] - In September 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.3% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and remained flat month - on - month [10] - From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of new commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The sales volume of new commercial housing was 6304 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 7229.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. In September, the real estate development climate index was 92.78 [12][14] - In September 2025, macro - economic data was still weak, showing weak demand. Except for the improvement in PPI, other economic indicators were weak, especially the real estate data [16] International - In September 2025, the CPI in the US increased by 0.1% from the previous month to 3%, and the CPI in the eurozone increased by 0.2% from the previous month to 2.2%. The eurozone faces greater economic recession pressure with lower inflation. The US inflation is still some distance from the 2% target range due to continuous tariff disturbances, but both are at relatively low levels, which is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost the economy [17] - On October 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate from 4.00% - 4.25% to 3.75% - 4.00%, a decrease of 25 basis points. This is the second interest rate cut within the year and the second consecutive cut since September. The main refinancing rate in the eurozone has dropped to 2.15% [20] - The Fed will end the reduction of its total securities holdings on December 1, 2025, ending the three - and - a - half - year balance sheet reduction [19] - High tariffs and high interest rates still have a certain negative impact on the US economy, but the US economy remains resilient. In September 2025, the US manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month to 49.1%, and the service industry PMI decreased by 2 percentage points from the previous month to 50% [21] 2. Fundamental - level PE - In October 2025, the production and capacity utilization rate of polyethylene increased. The capacity utilization rate was 82.05%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points from the previous period, and the output was 2.8851 million tons, an increase of 6.6 percentage points. The increase in output was mainly due to the new ExxonMobil device and the reduction of maintenance volume by 15% [24][25] - In October 2025, the overall downstream industry start - up rate of polyethylene was 44.92%, an increase of 2.35% from the previous month. The average monthly start - up rate of the PE packaging film industry was 52.27%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.08% and a month - on - month increase of 0.79%. The overall start - up rate of agricultural film increased by 15.8% month - on - month [27] - In October 2025, the social inventory of polyethylene increased. At the end of the month, the inventory in social sample warehouses was 527,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 167,000 tons. Due to the increase in domestic production and imports, polyethylene was in a situation of oversupply, and the social inventory increased during the peak season [30] PP - In October 2025, the total production of polypropylene in China was 3.5058 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.69% and a year - on - year increase of 15.37%. Although the loss data of polypropylene was still high, the overall start - up level of production enterprises increased, leading to an increase in total production [35] - In October 2025, the total consumption of polypropylene increased slightly month - on - month. The estimated apparent consumption in China was 3.5158 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.37% and a year - on - year increase of 11.56%. The start - up rates of downstream products increased month - on - month, especially in the modification, non - woven fabric, and plastic weaving industries, with increases of 5.45%, 4.41%, and 2.50% respectively. The demand for impact - copolymer polypropylene was driven by the new energy vehicle market, and the start - up rates of plastic weaving and non - woven fabrics were supported by stable orders. However, the growth of PP pipes and BOPP was small due to the weak real estate market and oversupply in the film factory [36][38] - At the end of October 2025, the inventory of polypropylene production enterprises was 595,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.39%. The inventory of polypropylene traders was 213,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.13%. The increase in inventory was mainly due to the accumulation during the National Day holiday and the failure to meet the peak - season demand expectations [41] 3. Market Outlook PE - In November 2025, the new Guangxi Petrochemical device of polyethylene will put pressure on the domestic supply, and there is an expectation of an increase in imports. The demand for northern greenhouse films will decrease with the cold weather, and the demand for packaging films will return to normal. The overall situation of polyethylene in the fourth quarter is oversupply [7][45] PP - In November 2025, the demand for polypropylene will continue to improve. The decrease in import arrivals and the decline in production will relieve the supply pressure, and the inventory will continue to be depleted. The demand in various industries will increase due to Double 11, Double 12, and Christmas orders, and the terminal consumption may reach a new high this year. The market supply and demand will maintain a tight balance, and the price is expected to stop falling and have a weak rebound [7][45]
聚烯烃月报：11月聚丙烯基本面稍好，但关注重点仍在宏观面-20251103
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-11-03 06:12