原油周报（SC）：短期利好因素兑现，国际油价震荡回落-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Short - term positive factors for crude oil have been realized, and international oil prices are oscillating downward. The long - term supply - demand pattern of crude oil is expected to be loose. The investment view is that the oil price will oscillate [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term): EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. OPEC+ plans a small production increase in December, which may exacerbate concerns about market oversupply [3]. - Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term): EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil demand in 2025, with EIA and OPEC showing an increase and IEA slightly reducing the growth rate [3]. - Inventory (Short - Term): US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending October 24, while some refined product inventories also changed [3]. - Industrial Policy (Medium - to - Long - Term): OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, and the International Energy Agency believes that without major geopolitical tensions, oil and gas prices will decline [3]. - Geopolitical (Short - Term): The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK imposed sanctions on Russian oil. However, the impact on the market is considered neutral [3]. - Macro - finance (Short - Term): The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and plans to end quantitative tightening in December. Sino - US leaders reached some consensus on trade tariff policies [3]. - Investment View: Due to OPEC+ continuing to increase production, demand entering the off - season, and the cooling of geopolitical tensions, the supply - demand situation is bearish, and the short - term oil price will oscillate [3]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3]. Part Two: Futures Market Data - Market Review: After short - term positive factors were traded, international oil prices oscillated downward. As of October 24, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures prices all declined [6]. - Month - to - Month Spread and Internal - External Spread: The near - month spread strengthened, and the internal - external spread rebounded and widened [9]. - Forward Curve: The near - month spread declined [21]. - Crack Spread: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel all declined [24][32]. Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production: Global crude oil production increased in September 2025. Non - OPEC countries' production also increased, and US weekly crude oil production reached 13.644 million barrels per day [42][54][66]. - Inventory: US commercial inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [77][87]. - Demand: In the US, gasoline implied demand increased, and refinery operating rates decreased. In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly, and refinery profits showed different trends [104][113][122]. - Macro - finance: US Treasury yields rebounded, and the US dollar index oscillated [135]. - CFTC Position: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [144].