国贸期货塑料数据周报-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market is expected to be volatile with no obvious driving factors. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is negative, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [2]. - For PP, the short - term market is also expected to be volatile with no clear drivers. Supply is neutral, demand is positive, inventory is negative, basis is neutral, profit is positive, valuation is negative, and macro - policy is negative [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis - Supply: This week, China's polyethylene production was 643,500 tons, a 0.72% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 80.87%, a 0.59 - percentage - point decrease. Some plants were under maintenance, increasing the maintenance loss [2]. - Demand: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64%. The overall agricultural film start - up rate increased by 2.75%, and the PE packaging film start - up rate increased by 0.52%. In September, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0222 million tons, a 10.07% year - on - year decrease and a 7.58% month - on - month increase [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 416,000 tons, a 19.16% month - on - month decrease. The social sample warehouse inventory was 527,400 tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease and a 9.18% year - on - year decrease. The import cargo warehouse inventory also decreased [2]. - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around 309, and the futures price is at a discount [2]. - Profit: The costs of oil - based, coal - based, and ethane - based production increased, while the methanol - based cost decreased. The main reason for the increase in oil prices is the US sanctions on Russia and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories [2]. - Valuation: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - Macro - policy: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [2]. 3.2 PP Analysis - Supply: This week, China's polypropylene production was 789,200 tons, a 1.49% increase from last week and a 17.79% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate was 77.06%, a 1.12% increase [3]. - Demand: The average downstream start - up rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61%. The demand for medical products and cold - chain packaging increased, and the BOPP industry's start - up rate increased steadily. However, the plastic - weaving industry was affected by rainy weather [3]. - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 595,100 tons, a 6.80% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory decreased by 2.25% month - on - month, and the trader sample inventory decreased by 7.80% month - on - month [3]. - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around - 20, and the futures price is around par [3]. - Profit: This week, the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while the profits of oil - based and PDH - based PP production declined [3]. - Valuation: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - Macro - policy: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to the fundamentals, with the futures price showing a weak and volatile trend [3]. 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - Prices: PP futures price decreased by 1.08%, PE futures price decreased by 1.00%, LLDPE CFR decreased by 1.22%, and ethylene CFR decreased by 3.85% [5]. - Production and Start - up Rates: PP production decreased by 5.22%, PE production decreased by 0.72%, PP start - up rate increased by 4.83%, and PE start - up rate decreased by 0.73% [5]. - Inventory: PP factory inventory decreased by 5.88%, PE social inventory increased by 0.10%, HDPE social inventory decreased by 3.16% [5].