合成橡胶投资周报：丁二烯低价施压，BR价格大幅下挫-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, frequent macro - news disturbances have led to a significant decline in butadiene prices, deepening the market's pessimistic sentiment and causing a sharp drop in futures prices. Attention should be paid to the spot price adjustment rhythm and the price guidance of natural rubber [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of October 30, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's main sales companies was 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. Although the natural rubber market was strong this period, it failed to drive the butadiene rubber market, and the price difference between the two varieties widened to over 4,000 yuan/ton. The increase in external sales resources of raw materials and the continuous decline in the external market price led to a rapid rise in market bearish sentiment. Affected by the maintenance of Qilu and Yangzi's butadiene rubber plants and future maintenance expectations, the offers of some spot - tight brands in Sinopec and PetroChina and in East and South China were firm, but the rapid weakening of the cost side led to a further decline in the negotiation focus of private resources. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's butadiene rubber were under pressure to be lowered, but the large price difference between brands was not significantly improved, and the low - price range transactions in the week gradually weakened. At the end of the period, affected by the news of the Fed's interest rate cut and the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the macro - level partially alleviated the market's bearish sentiment, but it had limited impact on boosting the spot market trading of butadiene rubber [5] 3.2 Price Data - Butadiene (BD): The prices of butadiene from various manufacturers and in different markets showed a downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli decreased by 8.06% week - on - week, and the price of Sinopec East China Yangzi decreased by 12.79% week - on - week [9] - Butadiene Rubber (BR): The ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's BR9000 decreased by 1.79% week - on - week. The market prices in different regions also generally declined, with the largest week - on - week decline of 3.69% in North China [8][9] - Styrene - Butadiene Rubber (SBR): The ex - factory and market prices of SBR also decreased. For example, the ex - factory price of Sinopec North China Qilu 1502 decreased by 1.75% week - on - week [9] 3.3 Device Maintenance - Butadiene Devices: Many butadiene devices in China were under maintenance or shutdown in 2025. For example, Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical's devices were shut down, while some devices such as those of Beifang Huajin and Qilu Petrochemical resumed production [3][11] - Butadiene Rubber Devices: Some butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance or had future maintenance plans. For example, Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical's butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance, and Zhenhua New Materials' device was expected to be under maintenance in November [3][11] 3.4 Influencing Factors - Supply: The supply of butadiene and butadiene rubber was affected by device operations. The output of butadiene increased due to the resumption of some devices, while the output of butadiene rubber was affected by device maintenance [3] - Demand: The demand for semi - steel tires was mixed, with the replacement market for all - season tires being weak and the demand for snow tires growing. The demand for all - steel tires was generally weak, with low replenishment willingness from channel merchants [3] - Inventory: The butadiene port inventory increased, while the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber in enterprises and traders decreased [3] - Basis: The basis of butadiene rubber in North, East, and South China was neutral [3] - Spread/Price Ratio: The spreads between RU - BR, NR - BR, and the BR - SC ratio were bullish [3] - Profit: The production profits of butadiene and butadiene rubber were bearish [3] - Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 14th Five - Year Plan. The Sino - US leaders' meeting in Busan achieved positive progress, and the sanctions on two Russian refineries by Europe and the United States and India's re - planning of energy procurement plans had a neutral impact on the market [3] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - sided Trading: No trading strategy was recommended [3] - Arbitrage Trading: Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU [3]