液化石油气（LPG）投资周报：美丙库存创新高，气油比再度走强-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment View: Bullish [7] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - Temporary Observation; Arbitrage - Long PP2601 and Short PL2601 [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the main contract of LPG futures strengthened, with the international LPG market price rising. The domestic supply decreased while imports increased, and port inventories rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand. The market confidence has recovered due to factors such as the expected increase in November import costs and the peak demand season in the far - month. [9] - The supply, demand, inventory, and other aspects of LPG show different trends. The supply is expected to decline this week, demand is gradually recovering, inventory shows a mixed trend, and the valuation of the LPG market is bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of the PN spread continuously below $50 on the raw material procurement of cracking units and overseas fundamental changes. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated between 4170 - 4330 yuan/ton. The international crude oil price first rose and then fell, but the international LPG market had a good trading atmosphere, and prices increased. As of Thursday, the basis in East China was - 1 yuan/ton, in South China was 114 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was - 6 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was priced in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3811, an increase of 1395 from last Thursday. [9] 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 53.06 million tons (-1.19%), including 20.93 million tons of civil gas, 21.34 million tons of industrial gas, and 18.05 million tons of ether - after carbon four. The LPG arrival volume was 82 million tons (59.11%). Enterprises in East and South China had maintenance last week, leading to a decline in supply. Some maintenance units in the Northeast, Shandong, and East China resumed, but an enterprise in Shandong had maintenance at the end of the week, which may continue to affect supply, and the domestic commodity volume is expected to decline this week. [7][8] 3.3 Demand - In late October, the winter heating demand gradually emerged, and the LPG combustion demand gradually improved, with demand slowly recovering. In the carbon - four deep - processing aspect, the restart of the maleic anhydride unit downstream of n - butane in November may drive an increase in demand, but the profit of the deep - processing unit is under pressure, suppressing the rebound of raw material prices. For isobutane, the dehydrogenation unit started operation, and the demand side improved. Overall, the demand for carbon - four deep - processing is relatively stable. In the propane deep - processing aspect, demand increased month - on - month, and the operating rate returned to a high level, but the continuous loss of unit profit due to the significant increase in raw material prices and unchanged terminal demand structure has dampened the production enthusiasm of enterprises. [6][7] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 18.17 million tons (-2.47%), and the port inventory was 309.72 million tons (3.96%). Refineries promoted sales by reducing prices this week, and shipments improved to varying degrees. Downstream buyers replenished at low prices, with stable market enthusiasm and a continuous decline in the storage capacity utilization rate. At ports, ships delayed by strong winds unloaded in a concentrated manner, resulting in a significant increase in imported resources. With a slight increase in chemical demand, downstream buyers maintained rigid procurement, and port inventories showed an accumulation trend. [7][8] 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was - 3.00 yuan/ton in East China, 120.20 yuan/ton in South China, and - 5.80 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 4194, an increase of 383, and the lowest deliverable location was East China. [7][8] 3.6 Chemical Downstream - Operating Rate: PDH was 73.85%, MTBE was 56.50%, and alkylation was 44.30%. - Profit: The profit of PDH to produce propylene was - 580 yuan/ton, MTBE isomerization was - 128 yuan/ton, and alkylation in Shandong was - 453 yuan/ton. [7] 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.28 (2.18%), and the PG primary - secondary month spread was 80 yuan/ton (-29.20%). Affected by geopolitical factors, the oil prices rebounded significantly this week, and the PG - SC cracking spread narrowed. [7] 3.8 Other Factors - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 15th Five - Year Plan period. - The China - US summit in Busan achieved positive progress, and the US made a series of commitments to suspend or cancel tariffs, export controls, and industrial investigations against China to ease bilateral economic and trade relations. - The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela intensified, and market news was constantly disturbing. - Europe and the US imposed sanctions on two Russian refineries, and India re - planned its energy procurement plan. [7]