集运指数欧线周报（EC）：宏观扰动及旺季预期先行，带动EC偏强运行-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests unilateral and arbitrage to remain on the sidelines [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Macroeconomic disturbances and peak - season expectations are driving the EC main contract to operate strongly. Although the overall demand is neutral, short - term macro - level positives, capacity regulation, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will continue to support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are disproven, the main contract is likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Spot Freight Rates: In early November, MSK quoted $2300, HPL quoted $2150, OOCL quoted $2250, EMC quoted $2500, MSC quoted $2250, YML quoted $1700, and HMM and ONE quoted $1900 [4] - Political and Economic Factors: Sino - US trade policy relaxation has released positive signals, but the agreement is short - term and may not lead to significant changes in supply - chain strategies. The US government shutdown has also affected the implementation of tariff policies [4] - Capacity Supply: The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000 TEU, 245,000 TEU in October, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [4] - Demand: The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years, with significant differences among alliances. Key influencing factors include peak - season demand fulfillment, shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [5] - Outlook and Strategy: Short - term macro - positives, capacity control, and price - support expectations will support the market. It is recommended to try long positions on the main contract at low prices, while closely monitoring suspension of voyages and shipping company loading rates [5] 3.2 Price - The report presents various price charts, including the European Line Index, the US West Line Index, the US East Line Index, and spot quotes from Maersk on the European line [9][15] 3.3 Static Capacity - Order Volume: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [18] - Delivery Volume: The delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities are presented, as well as future delivery forecasts [21][27] - Prices: It includes the scrap price, new - building price, and second - hand ship price of container ships in different loading capacities [34][40] - Existing Capacity: The existing capacity of container ships is analyzed in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, ships over 25 years old, and idle and retrofit ratios [51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - Shipping Schedule: The total capacity deployment and capacity deployment of different alliances on the Shanghai - European Base Port route are shown [64][66] - Desulfurization Tower Installation: It presents the situation of container ships with installed, being - installed, and to - be - installed desulfurization towers in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage [74][75] - Average Speed: The average speed of container ships and the average speed by loading capacity are provided [79] - Idle Capacity: The idle capacity of container ships, including total idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, and idle capacity ratio, is analyzed [82]