沥青：原油短期高位回落，沥青本周整体下跌

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on asphalt is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have fallen from short - term highs, and asphalt prices have declined overall this week. The supply of asphalt is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is neutral, and cost is neutral. The overall trend of asphalt continues to fluctuate with crude oil, showing a situation where the peak season is not prosperous [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is rated as neutral. In November 2025, the domestic asphalt refinery production plan is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (18.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (6.5%). This week, the overall supply slightly increased due to the resumption of production at Zhonghai Yingkou and intermittent production at Jiangsu Xinhai and Sinochem Quanzhou [3] - Demand: It is bearish. Affected by capital and cold air in the north, the markets in Shandong and North China are sluggish. Shandong stimulates downstream purchases by lowering prices and there is catch - up work after less rainfall. The demand in East China is also weak, with low prices and low shipments. The overall market demand is slowly declining with the drop in temperature. However, the total domestic asphalt shipments this week reached 469,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.3%. Shipments in North China and Northeast China have improved [3] - Inventory: It is neutral. The inventory of asphalt production enterprises has decreased this week, in line with last week's expectations. The inventory in most regions has declined, especially in Shandong. The social inventory has also decreased but does not meet last week's expectations. The social inventory in Shandong has decreased significantly due to improved weather and increased demand for catch - up projects [3] - Cost: It is neutral. This week, international oil prices fluctuated upwards. They first rose due to new US sanctions on Russia and upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, then fell due to doubts about the implementation of Russian sanctions, OPEC +'s planned production increase in December, and increased Iraqi oil exports in September, and finally rebounded due to positive EIA inventory data, positive signals from Sino - US and US - South Korea agreements, and the Fed's interest rate cut [3] - Investment View: The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. With high supply and declining demand in the north affected by the rainy season, the peak season for asphalt is not prosperous, and its long - term trend continues to follow crude oil [3] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, the outlook is oscillating; for arbitrage, there are no opportunities. Key risks to watch include OPEC + production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [3] Part Two: Price - There are multiple price charts showing the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions from 2021 to 2025, including national and regional data [5][6][8] Part Two: Spread & Basis & Delivery Profit - Spread: There are charts showing the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [12][13] - Basis: There is a chart showing the asphalt basis in major regions from 2024 to 2025 [14] Part Two: Supply - Scheduled Production Expectation: There are charts showing the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025, as well as production data in different regions such as North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [17][21][24] - Capacity Utilization: There are charts showing the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [29][33][35] - Maintenance Loss: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [40] Part Two: Cost & Profit - Production Gross Margin: There is a chart showing the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [43][44] - Diluted Asphalt: There are charts showing the price, premium/discount, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [47][48] Part Three: Inventory - Factory Inventory: There are charts showing the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [52][55] - Social Inventory: There are charts showing the social inventory of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [58] Part Three: Demand - Shipment Volume: There are charts showing the shipment volumes of asphalt in China and different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [61] - Downstream Operating Rate: There are charts showing the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [63][64][70]