PVC周报：宏观情绪消退，盘面价格底部震荡-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of PVC is "oscillation", indicating that in the short - term, PVC has no obvious driving factors and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the PVC futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply of PVC remains high, demand is weak, cost support is insufficient, and the fundamentals are weak both in reality and expectation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: It has a bearish drive. The domestic PVC spot market has been slightly adjusted this week, with the supply - demand pattern remaining oversupplied. The PVC supply has slightly increased due to maintenance, and the market demand remains dull. The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 78.26%, with the maintenance loss volume decreasing [3]. - Demand: It also has a bearish drive. Although downstream demand has slightly improved, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level. Exports have declined, but the export volume from January to August has increased cumulatively [3]. - Inventory: It's neutral. The inventory of PVC production enterprises has slightly increased, while the social inventory has slightly decreased [3]. - Basis: It's neutral. The basis has weakened significantly, currently at - 128 yuan/ton [3]. - Profit: It's bullish. The profits of the two PVC production processes have changed this week, with the profit of the calcium - carbide method decreasing and that of the ethylene method increasing [3]. - Valuation: It's neutral. The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, the market is oscillating weakly, and the valuation is neutral [3]. - Macro - policy: It's neutral. The anti - involution sentiment in the energy - chemical sector has temporarily subsided, but there will be many subsequent macro - events [3]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, there is currently no suitable strategy [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The PVC powder market has had small fluctuations this week due to the lack of obvious one - sided driving factors. The supply is high, demand is weak, and cost support is insufficient. The fundamentals of PVC powder have changed little, and both the current situation and expectations are weak [6]. 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production Area Output: After the end of maintenance, the output in the northwest has rebounded [36]. - Domestic Inventory: The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased [46]. - Factory Inventories in Various Regions: Inventories in various regions have decreased [57]. - Downstream Operating Rate: The average downstream operating rate, pipe operating rate, and profile operating rate are presented in the data, with the operating rates of some downstream industries showing improvement [71]. - Export: The export peak season is approaching, but exports have slowed down. There is still profit space for PVC exports, but due to the impact of India's anti - dumping policy and increased export competition pressure, exports are difficult to increase significantly [79][81].