贵金属：今冬蛰影藏幽意，明春芳华绽可期

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - London gold and London silver experienced a sharp correction after accelerating their upward movement in October but remained the best - performing global asset classes this year. The decline in late October was mainly a technical correction, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remained intact [90]. - The direct driver of the precious metals' rally since late August was Powell's unexpectedly dovish speech at the global central bank meeting, followed by the Fed's consecutive interest rate cuts in September and October and the end of QT since 2022. Sticky US inflation and falling real yields on US Treasuries were positive for precious metals [90]. - Deeper concerns stemmed from the market's worries about the Fed's future independence. Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Cook challenged the Fed's independence, leading to the ineffectiveness of the Fed's forward - guidance and irreversible damage to the US dollar's credit [90]. - Since the third quarter, long - term interest rates in major global economies have risen uncontrollably, approaching a global debt crisis. US Treasuries are no longer considered a safe - haven asset, and the US dollar index is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, leading to the return of the traditional monetary attributes of gold and silver [90]. - Gold and silver are being re - defined as anti - inflation, risk assets, and important components of global asset allocation, with a surge in investment demand [90]. - In the remaining part of the year, the precious metals market is expected to consolidate, with volatility gradually decreasing, in preparation for the next upward movement. In the medium - to - long - term, silver is undervalued compared to gold and likely to have stronger upward potential [90]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Market Review Gold - In October, the global gold market accelerated its upward movement, then retreated after hitting a high. The Shanghai gold futures contract briefly exceeded 1,000 yuan/gram, and London gold neared $4,400/ounce. However, it later suffered a significant one - day drop, with London gold falling over 6% and breaking below $4,000 and $3,900/ounce, with a cumulative decline of over 10% [15]. - The decline was a technical correction of the previous rapid rise. The spot market remained relatively stable, with the world's largest gold ETF's holdings decreasing by less than 2% in late October [15]. Silver - In October, the global silver market also accelerated its upward movement, setting a new record high before falling back. The Shanghai silver futures contract exceeded 12,000 yuan/kg, and London silver approached $55/ounce, breaking the 2011 high. The year - to - date gain was over 80% [19]. - The rally was driven by both the gold price and a shortage of physical silver liquidity. After the liquidity shortage eased and the gold price corrected, the silver price dropped rapidly. The decline was also a technical correction, and the physical market remained relatively optimistic, with the SLV silver holdings decreasing by less than 4% in late October [19]. Part 2: Macro Logic Manufacturing Reshoring and the Decline of the US Dollar's Reserve Currency Status - The US dollar index has been in a downward trend since the beginning of the year, and the market consensus on its medium - to - long - term decline has been strengthened. The "Sea Lake Manor Agreement" aims to rebalance trade, but it may lead to a reduction in the US dollar's global settlement share and weaken its reserve currency status [24]. - Global central banks have been accelerating the process of "de - dollarization" and increasing their gold reserves. In 2024, the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropped to 58%, a 30 - year low [24]. The Pennsylvania Plan and the US Debt Crisis - The Pennsylvania Plan aims to shift the demand for US Treasuries from external to domestic investors to stabilize the US debt market. However, it has not been very effective so far, and long - term US Treasury demand remains weak [25]. Digital Currencies and the US Debt - The US has established a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins. In the short term, stablecoins may increase the demand for US Treasuries, but in the long term, they may accelerate the collapse of the US dollar's credit if the US fails to address its twin deficits [27]. Global Debt Crisis and the Flight to Precious Metals - Global debt levels are high, and major economies' sovereign credit ratings have been downgraded. Traditional credit - based monetary systems are being questioned, leading to an inflow of funds into precious metals and cryptocurrencies [29]. - US Treasuries are no longer considered a safe - haven asset, and global central banks' gold holdings have exceeded their US Treasury holdings. As the Fed enters a new interest - rate cut cycle, central banks are expected to continue reducing their US Treasury holdings and increasing their gold reserves [32]. Shifting Asset Allocation - Global investors have been reducing their exposure to US dollar - denominated assets and increasing their allocation to non - US assets, benefiting precious metals [34]. US Economic Situation and the Fed's Policy - The US economy is still expanding, but inflation remains above the Fed's target. The Fed started a new interest - rate cut cycle in September, which is positive for precious metals [37]. - US non - farm payroll data has been disappointing, and the Fed's focus has shifted from inflation to employment. Powell's stance has turned dovish, and the market is concerned about the Fed's independence [40][43]. Redefinition of Gold - Gold is being re - defined as an anti - inflation and risk asset, and it has become an important part of global asset allocation. Global high - net - worth individuals have increased their gold allocation, driving up its price [47]. Part 3: Fundamental Logic Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central bank gold purchases slowed down in the first half of 2025 but accelerated in the third quarter. Most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [52]. Gold Investment Demand - Gold investment demand has been increasing, with global gold ETFs attracting significant inflows in the third quarter. The gold market has returned to a supply - deficit situation [55]. Silver Supply and Demand - Silver supply growth has been slow due to factors such as high production costs and long project cycles. Industrial demand, especially from the photovoltaic and automotive sectors, has been driving up silver demand [58][61]. - The global silver market has been in a supply - deficit situation, and the supply - demand gap is expected to persist in the medium - to - long - term. The inventory structure shows a shortage of freely - tradable silver [64]. Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio reflects the premium of gold over silver in terms of safe - haven demand. Historically, it has been negatively correlated with copper prices. Currently, the ratio is expected to decline further, indicating more upside potential for silver [65][67]. Asset Management and ETF Holdings - COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased in the third quarter, and the world's largest gold ETF's holdings reached a new high. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased, and the SLV silver holdings declined in October [70][73]. Options Markets - Gold and silver option historical volatilities have fluctuated, and their weighted implied volatilities are currently at high levels. Strategies such as selling slightly out - of - the - money put options or selling straddles can be considered [76][79]. Technical Analysis - Gold is in a long - term bull market, and based on historical experience, it still has room for growth in both time and price. Silver usually lags behind gold in entering a bull market but has a larger cumulative increase. The technical charts of both metals show positive signals [84][87]. Part 4: Summary and Outlook - In the remaining part of the year, the precious metals market is expected to consolidate, with volatility gradually decreasing. In the medium - to - long - term, silver is undervalued compared to gold and has stronger upward potential [90]. - The price ranges for the rest of the year are estimated: London gold is expected to trade between $3,800 - 3,900/ounce and $4,100 - 4,200/ounce; Shanghai gold futures between 880 - 900 yuan/gram and 940 - 960 yuan/gram; London silver between $44 - 46/ounce and $53 - 55/ounce; and Shanghai silver futures between 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/kg and 12,000 - 12,500 yuan/kg [89].