贵金属周报：短期仍会整理，底部会有抬高-20251103

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term, but the lows will be elevated [2][6]. - Gold prices will receive medium - term support as the Fed is in an obvious interest - rate cut cycle, and central banks' gold - buying trends will continue due to high US debt and the decline of the US dollar's credibility [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, gold prices tumbled in the first half of the week, rebounded on Thursday, and slightly pulled back on Friday, closing with a mid - length bearish candlestick with a lower shadow, showing signs of short - term stabilization [2]. - After a sharp rise and then a sharp fall, the international gold price briefly broke below the psychological level of $4000 per ounce but then recovered, and the overall support remains effective. It also found support at the 10 - week line on the weekly chart, indicating that the medium - term upward trend is intact [5]. Trigger Factors for Gold Price Fluctuations - The sharp rise and subsequent fall in gold prices were triggered by the easing of Sino - US relations, the possible acceleration of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, profit - taking, and margin calls in the leveraged market [2]. Interest Rate Situation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week as expected. Since last year, it has cut rates by a total of 150 basis points, with the federal funds rate dropping from a high of 5.25% - 5.5% to the current 3.75% - 4.00% [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that a December rate cut is not guaranteed. Although the job market is weakening, inflation pressure cannot be ignored. However, this is a routine operation of his forward - guidance, and it will not change the overall downward trend of interest rates [2]. - The Fed is currently implementing preventive rate cuts. The job market is affected by the US government shutdown, and last month's inflation data (CPI and core CPI year - on - year) was 3%, which meets the basic conditions for rate cuts. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations is conducive to further rate cuts by the Fed [3][4]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is 74.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 25.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by January next year is 57.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 16.6% [4]. Other Influencing Factors - As Powell will leave office in May next year, Trump is likely to restructure the Fed, and the new Fed chairman will likely follow Trump's policy of accelerating rate cuts. Future rate cuts are expected to reach at least the neutral rate of 3%, and it is very likely that 3% is not the end - point of this rate - cut cycle [4]. - The US Senate passed a resolution to end Trump's global tariff policy, but it still needs to pass the House of Representatives. Given the majority of Republican members, it may not pass. Even if it passes both houses, Trump will likely veto it, and Congress would need a two - thirds majority to override the veto, making it very difficult. Therefore, Trump's tariff war is unlikely to end completely, and market risk factors always exist, which is positive for gold prices [5].