大类资产配置月报：权益优于债券，黄金盘整筑底-20251103

Macro Environment Review and Outlook - The overseas macro environment shows weak employment, moderate inflation, and reduced tariff risks, with expectations for a continued interest rate cut cycle [12][14][23] - The domestic macro environment indicates weak recovery in internal demand, strong exports, and structural differentiation, with potential policy adjustments in the near future [13][49] Major Asset Review and Outlook - The U.S. stock market is expected to continue a wide-ranging upward trend, supported by interest rate cuts, soft landing, AI developments, and improved U.S.-China relations [4][10] - The U.S. bond market may see a steepening yield curve in November and December, with short-term yields expected to decline due to interest rate cut expectations [4][30] - The U.S. dollar is anticipated to remain strong in the short term but may face pressure in the medium to long term [5][32] - Gold is expected to consolidate and build momentum in November, with a long-term bullish outlook [5][10] - Commodity markets, particularly oil, face oversupply pressures, while copper is viewed positively in the medium to long term [5][52] Domestic Market Insights - The A-share market is expected to outperform bonds, with a continuation of the trend favoring dividend stocks over growth stocks in the short term [5][10] - The bond market, after a recovery in October, is not expected to present significant trend opportunities, requiring a cautious approach to investment [5][10]