铜：金融和商品属性共振沪铜价格中枢有望上移

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The price center of Shanghai Copper is expected to move up as the financial and commodity attributes of copper resonate. The copper market in October 2025 showed a collective upward trend, with both LME Copper and Shanghai Copper hitting record highs. The inflow of funds into the copper market and the repair of the copper - gold ratio drove the price increase. In the fourth quarter, the macro - level is favorable for copper prices, and the supply - demand pattern will turn to supply - weak and demand - strong, which is expected to push the price of Shanghai Copper to continuously set new historical highs [8][122]. Summary by Directory 1. Global Macro and Copper Market - Domestic Macro Policy: China's GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 was 1015036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The manufacturing industry showed good growth, and the profit of industrial enterprises increased significantly. The manufacturing PMI is expected to break through the boom - bust line in the fourth quarter. The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of copper in future industries. The Fed's new round of interest - rate cuts provides conditions for China's macro - policy to exert force again in the fourth quarter, which is generally favorable for copper prices [13][14]. - Domestic Re - inflation Logic: Since the third quarter, the macro - level has shifted to trading the re - inflation logic. Although the real - estate data is weak, copper and the CSI 300 index continue to rise. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the re - inflation logic is expected to be further strengthened, which is beneficial to copper prices [17]. - US Manufacturing: The US manufacturing industry is expanding at an accelerating pace and is about to enter the inventory - replenishment cycle. The US has a large potential for copper demand growth in the future, and its market increment will be the main marginal variable affecting copper prices [23]. 2. Copper Supply Situation Analysis - Mine - end Supply: Globally, the supply of copper mines has been loose since the second quarter but showed a turning point in September. The accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia will affect the supply. It is expected that the global copper concentrate output will increase by about 2% in 2025, with a gap of about 300,000 metal tons. The supply shortage at the mine end will be transmitted to the smelting end, and the domestic refined copper output is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [28][35]. - Refined Copper Production: Although the supply of domestic copper concentrates has been tight this year, the output of electrolytic copper increased in the first half of the year and reached a historical high in the third quarter. However, in September, the output decreased due to factors such as increased maintenance and shortage of anode supply. It is expected that the output will continue to decline in the fourth quarter [37]. - Scrap Copper and Anode Supply: The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened, and the supply of scrap - produced anodes is tight, which restricts the output of electrolytic copper. The import of scrap copper from the US has decreased, and the production of scrap - copper rods has decreased, further affecting the supply of anodes [43]. - Electrolytic Copper Trade: In 2025, the export and import of electrolytic copper in China changed due to the US tariff policy. After the US imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper products, the export of electrolytic copper decreased, and the import increased. It is expected that the export will further decline in the fourth quarter, while the import may continue to rise moderately [46]. 3. Copper Demand Situation Analysis - Domestic Copper Products Output: The output of domestic copper products was strong in the first three quarters, and it is expected to reach a new high in the fourth quarter. The output of copper rods increased significantly, while the output of copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips showed different trends. The output of copper foils increased against the trend, and the demand for power grid investment remained high [52]. - Specific Demand Sectors: - Copper Rods: The output of electrolytic copper rods showed a strong performance in the peak season, and it is expected to reach a high in the fourth quarter, but the downstream cable enterprises'开工 has declined [55]. - Copper Tubes: The output of copper tubes decreased in the second quarter and reached the lowest in August. Although it increased slightly in September, the demand in October was not as expected, and the demand in the fourth quarter is expected to be neutral [58]. - Copper Bars: The demand for copper bars has been at a low level throughout the year, mainly due to the weak real - estate market and high copper prices. It is expected that the demand will decline year - on - year [61]. - Copper Strips: The output of copper strips was lower than the average in the third quarter, and it is expected to increase slightly in the fourth quarter [64]. - Copper Foils: The output of copper foils increased against the trend in the third quarter, and the peak - season characteristics were prominent in October. It is expected that the output will continue to increase [71]. - Power Grid and Power Supply Investment: The power grid investment is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the fourth quarter, while the power supply investment has slowed down, and the copper demand from the power supply end is expected to decline [74]. - Real - Estate: The real - estate investment has not improved significantly and remains a drag on copper consumption [77]. - Household Appliances: The demand for household appliances declined in the third quarter, and it is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter [80]. - New Energy Vehicles: The output of new energy vehicles maintained high growth, and the future demand for AI - related copper will contribute to the incremental demand [83]. 4. Copper Inventory Change Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the global copper inventory decreased, and the structural contradiction was prominent. In the third quarter, the inventory of the three major exchanges increased, mainly in the US market. In October, the total inventory of the three major exchanges continued to increase, and the structural contradiction was further highlighted. The high inventory in the US is difficult to flow out in the short term, while the non - US inventory is at a low level, which will drive the copper price up in the fourth quarter [88]. 5. Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the global copper supply - demand structure is tighter than in 2024, and the supply gap is expected to exceed 300,000 metal tons. The refined copper was in a state of oversupply in the first half of the year, and it is expected to turn to supply falling short of demand in the fourth quarter. The global electrolytic copper output is expected to increase by about 3% in 2025, while the demand growth rate is expected to exceed 4%, and the excess scale is expected to narrow [92][95]. 6. Copper Position Analysis - In the third quarter, the total position of COMEX copper futures and options increased, and the net long position increased slightly. The long - position of LME copper investment funds increased in October, which is consistent with the upward trend of copper prices [101]. 7. Arbitrage Analysis - Copper Shanghai - London Ratio: In the first half of the year, the Shanghai - London ratio of copper decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter. - Copper - Zinc Ratio: The copper - zinc ratio has continued to rise this year and reached a 10 - year high. It is expected to continue to rise in the remaining time of the year [106]. 8. Copper Option Market - The implied volatility of copper options has risen to the highest level this year, and it is suitable to sell options. It is recommended to construct a strategy of selling slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums [111]. 9. Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - Technical Analysis: The monthly line of the Shanghai Copper main contract has broken through, and the short - term may have fluctuations near the 90,000 - yuan integer mark. Once it breaks through, it will open up a new upward space. - Market Outlook and Suggestions: The commodity and metal attributes of copper are expected to drive the price up. In the fourth quarter, the price is mainly driven by the supply side, and the demand is expected to be better than in the third quarter. It is recommended that downstream demanders conduct long - hedging operations in the far - month contracts, and consider selling slightly out - of - the - money put options or constructing a short - straddle strategy in the option market [120][122].