焦煤焦炭周报：煤矿端供应持续收紧，双焦期价震荡偏强-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of coking coal and coke decreased slightly last week, and their futures prices fluctuated strongly. The coking coal 2601 contract should pay attention to the pressure level around 1330 in the short term, and the coke 2601 contract should pay attention to the pressure level around 1865 [3][4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Last week, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1286 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 3%. The mainstream spot market prices were strong. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1777 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.11%. The mainstream spot market prices increased by 50 - 55 yuan/ton [3] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Coking Coal - Supply: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 84.8%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous week. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous week. The daily output of clean coal was 265,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week. Due to strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections, the supply remained tight, and both raw coal and clean coal inventories decreased [3] - Demand: The second round of coke price increase was implemented, supporting the coking coal price. Although the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills decreased, it remained at a relatively high level. Coking and steel enterprises still had restocking needs, and the rigid demand for coking coal remained unchanged. Coking enterprises limited production, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises continued to accumulate. Most enterprises still mainly purchased on - demand. The coking coal online auction prices mainly increased, and the transaction rate was high [4] 3.2.2. Coke - Supply: The utilization rate of the production capacity of all - sample independent coking enterprises nationwide was 73.44%, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous week. The daily output was 645,900 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week. The profit per ton of 30 sample coking enterprises was - 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous week. Due to factors such as losses and environmental protection, the supply of coke decreased slightly. The coke spot at ports was stable and strong, and the inventory increased [6] - Demand: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96% from the previous week. The daily pig iron output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons from the previous week. The profitability rate of steel mills was 45.02%, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week. Affected by environmental protection policies, the rigid demand for coke from steel mills decreased slightly, but the pig iron output was still at a relatively high level, and the demand support for coke was still strong. Although the profitability rate of steel mills decreased, some steel mills in certain regions actively purchased coke in the short term, and most enterprises still mainly purchased on - demand [6] 3.3. Arbitrage - Last week, the coking coal - to - coke ratio dropped significantly with an average of 1.39. From the seasonal chart of the past 5 years, it is currently at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Attention should be paid to the range of 1.35 - 1.55. Also, pay attention to the spot prices of coking coal and coke, downstream finished product demand, steel mill production, profits of coking and steel enterprises, international macro - policies, and sudden risk impacts [7] 3.4. Inventory - Coking Coal: The port inventory was 290.15 million tons, an increase of 14.5 million tons; the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1,052.48 million tons, an increase of 22.78 million tons; the inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 796.32 million tons, an increase of 13.36 million tons; the total inventory was 2,138.95 million tons, an increase of 50.64 million tons [8] - Coke: The port inventory was 211.10 million tons, an increase of 11.01 million tons; the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 59.87 million tons, an increase of 1.23 million tons; the inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 629.05 million tons, a decrease of 4.11 million tons; the total inventory was 900.02 million tons, an increase of 8.13 million tons [8]