纯苯、苯乙烯周报：基本面与情绪共振，纯苯苯乙烯下行-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on styrene is "oscillating", with an expected bearish trend due to weakening costs [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of styrene are weak, leading to a decline in the prices of pure benzene and styrene. Multiple factors including supply, demand, basis, profit, and macro - policies contribute to the bearish sentiment, while inventory and valuation are neutral [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The economic performance of styrene is poor. The spread between styrene and naphtha has narrowed to about $249, and the spread between styrene and benzene has slightly widened to $132. Non - integrated production profits remain negative [4]. - Demand: Port inventories have decreased slightly, but market expectations are poor. As of October 27, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.14% month - on - month and 10.53% year - on - year. Due to profit contraction, there are more rumors of supply - side maintenance, and overseas demand is still declining [4]. - Inventory: As of October 27, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.69% from the previous period, and the commercial inventory decreased by 1.22% [4]. - Basis: The styrene basis has strengthened slightly. Although there are expectations of inventory reduction for pure benzene and styrene, the arrival of the consumption off - season and pessimistic demand expectations have led to a pessimistic market sentiment [4]. - Profit: The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $249, and the spread between benzene and naphtha is about $132 [4]. - Valuation: Crude oil prices have rebounded, and overseas pure benzene continues to flow in. The demand side has become an obvious constraint on styrene prices [4]. - Macro - policy: The macro - policy is bearish, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [4]. - Investment view: Styrene costs are weakening, and it is expected to be mainly bearish, with an oscillating trend [4]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - Crude oil: The US and Europe have imposed sanctions on mainstream Russian crude oil companies, and North American crude oil inventories have decreased [6]. - Styrene: The integrated profit of styrene has rebounded, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The price of pure benzene has continued to decline due to the drag of derivative demand [13][24][36]. 3.3 Overview of Polymer Demand - Styrene downstream - ABS: Supply tightening is limited, and demand is weak in the off - season. Capacity utilization, production gross margin, and factory inventory show corresponding trends [50]. - Styrene downstream - PS: Inventory pressure has eased, and profits have slightly recovered [60]. - Styrene downstream - EPS: Inventory has accumulated, and production has rebounded [71]. - Pure benzene - Aniline: Production gross margin has recovered [81]. - Phenol: Port inventory has further declined [92]. - Adipic acid: Production load has declined [102]. - Caprolactam: Production load has declined, and inventory has decreased [113]. - Household appliances: Export demand has declined [122]. - Overall situation: Sino - US trade disputes have eased, but the pure benzene and styrene markets continue to decline. Styrene production profits are under pressure, with high total inventory. Supply has tightened in the short term, but downstream demand is weak [127].