军工行业2025年三季报业绩回顾：3Q利润系近9个季度首次正增长，行业回款仍有压力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the military industry, highlighting a significant recovery in demand and performance in 3Q25 [6]. Core Insights - The military industry experienced a revenue growth of 18.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable recovery in demand since the beginning of the year [1][9]. - 3Q25 marked the first quarter of positive net profit growth in nearly nine quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 19.5% [2][67]. - The report emphasizes the non-linear relationship between revenue and profit growth, primarily influenced by price reductions and impairment losses [2][67]. - The inventory levels have shifted from negative to positive indicators, reflecting a proactive approach to production in response to order recovery [3][21]. - The report identifies key segments within the industry, such as weapons and drones, showing strong profit growth, while other segments like new materials are experiencing declines [4][53]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In 1-3Q25, the military industry (excluding ships) achieved total revenue of 357.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, while net profit decreased by 10% to 19.3 billion yuan [9][10]. - 3Q25 saw a revenue increase of 43.0% year-on-year, reaching 135.3 billion yuan, with net profit also increasing by 19.5% to 6.4 billion yuan [67][68]. Segment Analysis - The weapons segment showed a remarkable profit growth of 196.5% year-on-year, driven by significant increases in key companies [40][41]. - The drone segment also reported a revenue increase of 81.9% year-on-year, marking a return to profitability [44]. - The shipbuilding segment achieved a revenue of 176.8 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 48.1% [45]. Inventory and Receivables - As of September 30, 2025, industry inventory reached 282.4 billion yuan, accounting for 79% of total revenue, indicating a positive shift in inventory management [3][21]. - Accounts receivable increased to 380.3 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing collection pressures but showing signs of improvement as the growth rate of receivables began to slow compared to revenue growth [23][28]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The industry reported a net cash flow from operating activities of -39 billion yuan, although this represented a significant improvement compared to previous periods [28][29]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring cash flow and receivables as indicators of financial health within the industry [28][23].