聚酯周报：反内卷传闻扰动市场，聚酯供给有所收缩-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the polyester industry is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate. The trading strategy for the unilateral position is to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester market is affected by multiple factors. The supply of PTA has slightly shrunk, the downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, the basis of PTA has stabilized, and the profit has continued to shrink. The price of PX has rebounded, and the profit has been significantly repaired. The market is expected to mainly oscillate due to the lack of obvious driving forces [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The supply of domestic PTA devices has slightly shrunk, the PTA basis has stabilized, and the operating rate of PX devices has been stable, with the PXN expanding. It is bearish [5]. - Demand: The downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the downstream weaving has performed well recently. It is expected that the current peak season can last until November. It is bullish [5]. - Inventory: The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, with a 50,000 - ton increase in inventory this week. It is neutral [5]. - Basis: The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, and the PTA profit has continued to shrink. It is bearish [5]. - Profit: The spread between PX and naphtha is $250, and the processing fee of PTA remains below 200 yuan. It is bearish [5]. - Valuation: The PTA price is at a neutral - low level, the profit of the reforming device has declined, and the anti - involution news has disturbed the market, causing the absolute price of PTA to rebound. It is neutral [5]. - Macro Policy: On October 30 local time, the Chinese and US presidents held a meeting. It is neutral [5]. - Investment View: There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [5]. - Trading Strategy: The unilateral position should wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - Crude Oil: North American crude oil inventories are at a recent low, and the US has imposed new sanctions on two Russian oil companies. The market fundamentals support oil prices, with a decrease in US crude oil inventories and a large drop in gasoline inventories, both slightly below the five - year average level. The refinery operating rate has risen from 85.7% to 88.6%. Crude oil and gasoline markets have strengthened under the tightening supply and geopolitical risks, but the reforming oil has performed relatively weakly [7][29]. - Gasoline: US gasoline inventories are approaching a low point. North American refinery loads have declined, and gasoline cracking profits have strengthened. The premium of reforming oil to RBOB has narrowed, the octane number profit rate of the reforming device has increased, and the refinery's oil - blending efficiency has improved. However, the reforming oil performance reflects that the oil - blending demand has not fully followed up [11][17][29]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - Aromatic Hydrocarbons: The supply of xylene has increased, and the weakness of aromatic hydrocarbons has continued. The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened, but physical trade has not occurred. The price of pure benzene continues to suppress the disproportionation profit, and the profit of the STDP device is negative. Some producers have reduced the load of the reforming device due to the average profit of benzene [37][47][62]. - PX: It is the core of the price fluctuation in the polyester industry. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to futures. The PX spot trading is active, the price has significantly rebounded, and the profit has been significantly repaired. However, attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream demand and geopolitical supply disturbances [58][67]. - PTA: Due to the large domestic PTA production capacity, the processing interval of PTA has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new devices and new production capacities, the option - based income - enhancement scheme is increasingly widely used in the market [58][66]. - Short Fibers and Bottle Chips: They are in the production capacity launch cycle. Since the domestic downstream demand is relatively stable, overseas demand has become an important variable. With the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the industry has found new export opportunities and sales growth points in countries along the "Belt and Road" [58][66]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still at a low level, the port arrivals are still limited, and the import volume of ethylene glycol in the overseas market is expected to decline. New device launches have continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. The coal price has risen, but it has not provided stronger cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [87]. - Gasoline: The profit of Asian gasoline has significantly rebounded due to the reduction in domestic exports [89]. - Polyester: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, and the weaving load remains optimistic. The production of polyester has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the export performance after the tariff adjustment. The domestic polyester export is still optimistic, but the industry profit is still restricted by the over - capacity caused by new device launches [73][96][98].