YILI(SH:600887) CSC SECURITIES (HK) LTD·2025-11-03 06:51Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [3][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 90.56 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with a net profit of 10.43 billion RMB, down 4.1% year-on-year. The third quarter revenue was 28.63 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.23 billion RMB, down 3.4% year-on-year [8][10]. - Despite a challenging market environment, the company continues to enhance its competitive position in niche segments. The liquid milk segment saw a revenue decline of 8.8% in Q3, while the milk powder and dairy products segment grew by 12.7%, and the ice cream segment increased by 17.4% [10]. - The gross margin for Q3 decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 33.9%, primarily due to changes in the product mix [10]. - The company is expected to see a significant rebound in performance in Q4 due to a low base effect, although supply-demand imbalances may take time to adjust [10]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 11.08 billion RMB, 12.27 billion RMB, and 13.47 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 10.7%, and 9.8% respectively [10]. Financial Summary - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 172.52 billion RMB, with a current share price of 27.41 RMB as of October 31, 2025 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.75 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 times [10][12]. - The dividend per share (DPS) is expected to be 1.26 RMB for 2025, with a dividend yield of 4.60% [12].