PTA：产业链暂无明显利好，PTA延续震荡，MEG：供需转弱预期下，MEG继续承压

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, with supply surplus, weak demand, and no new intensification in geopolitical situations, international crude oil is expected to run weakly. For PX, its load has recovered to a relatively high level, and with few maintenance plans in the fourth quarter, the rebound space for the PX - naphtha spread is limited [6]. - For PTA, multiple plants have maintenance expectations, so the supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Although there are expectations for new polyester plant launches, demand will gradually decline after the traditional peak season, and polyester monthly output will decline. With the weak outlook for crude oil, the seasonal weakness of PTA in the distant end is hard to change, and it is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in November [6]. - For ethylene glycol (MEG), with the weakness of international crude oil, the supply - demand situation is expected to lead to inventory accumulation. However, the inventory at the main ports is at a low level, so MEG may continue to be under pressure, and the industry will continue the high - level hedging strategy [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - 1.1 Market Review: In October, although the oil price dropped and cost support was weak, the downstream demand for PX showed a slight improvement. Terminal inventory - building enthusiasm increased, and the downstream was in the destocking stage. Coupled with the relatively low PX - naphtha spread at the end of September, the PX price rose slightly compared to the end of September. As of October 31, the closing price of Asian PX was 820.33 US dollars/ton CFR China, up 12 US dollars/ton from September 30, with a decline rate of 1.42% [12]. - 1.2 Maintenance and Restart: In October, the Fuguidaohua 1.4 - million - ton plant was under maintenance, and the Urumqi Petrochemical was under maintenance for about half a month. The PX industry's operating load reached 90.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4% [15]. - 1.3 Demand and Spread: As of October 31, the PX - naphtha spread reached 239.8 US dollars/ton, up 22.75 US dollars/ton from September 30. With the continuous destocking of downstream PTA, good polyester sales, reduced inventory, and enhanced terminal restocking enthusiasm, the PX - naphtha spread was significantly repaired [18]. 2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - 2.1 Market Review: Drag from both cost and supply - demand factors led to a downward shift in the PTA price center. In the second half of the month, positive signals from the China - US economic and trade talks repaired market expectations for demand prospects, boosting market sentiment and causing the price to rebound from a low level. As of October 31, the PTA spot price was 4,510 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 71 [19]. - 2.2 Capacity Utilization: In October, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 77.02%, a month - on - month increase of 1.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.77%. In November, plants such as Dushan Energy, Honggang Petrochemical, Sichuan Energy Investment, Ineos, Yisheng Ningbo, and Hengli Petrochemical have maintenance plans, and PTA monthly output is expected to decline [23]. - 2.3 Processing Fee: In October, new plants were under trial operation, and previously maintained plants restarted. The destocking amplitude of supply - demand decreased, and terminal performance was below expectations, causing the PTA processing fee to continue to weaken. The average monthly PTA processing fee in October was 145.39 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.06% [28]. - 2.4 Supply - Demand Inventory: In November, with the expected significant increase in supply from new PTA plants, and with plants under maintenance and restarting, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to shift to inventory accumulation [29]. 3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - 3.1 Market Review: In October, the sharp decline in international oil prices dragged down the cost of ethylene glycol. Maintenance enterprises restarted one after another, and new production capacity was released. With stable imports, the overall supply increased significantly. Terminal orders were mediocre, and downstream polyester inventory remained high. The East China spot price dropped below 4,100 yuan/ton from 4,214 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and then rebounded slightly to around 4,150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. As of October 31, the closing price of MEG in Zhangjiagang was 4,111 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,210 yuan/ton [34]. - 3.2 Production Capacity Utilization: In October, the domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was about 66.82%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of non - coal - based ethylene glycol was about 65.28%, and that of coal - based ethylene glycol was about 69.42% [35]. - 3.3 Port Inventory: As of October 30, the total MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 49.9 tons, an increase of 3.4 tons from October 27. As of November 6, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China is 15 tons, including 6 tons in Zhangjiagang, 5 tons in Taicang, 2 tons in Ningbo, and 1.9 tons in Jiangyin [41]. - 3.4 Processing Profit: With the increase in international oil prices, the cost - end support moved up. The domestic supply decreased briefly, and downstream polyester demand was stable. However, the supply - demand fundamentals were expected to be weak, and the ethylene glycol price fluctuated and consolidated. Currently, the sample profits of each process remain in a loss state. As of October 30, the naphtha profit dropped to - 116.86 US dollars/ton, and the integrated plants were still in a loss state, while the profits of other processes also maintained varying degrees of losses [44]. 4. Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industry Chain - 4.1 Polyester Output: In October, polyester output was 6.87 million tons, slightly higher than expected. The polyester production capacity base increased to 87.635 million tons, and the polyester capacity utilization rate was about 87.66%, also a slight increase compared to September [47]. - 4.2 Polyester Load: In November, there are expectations for new plant launches, but as the traditional peak season ends, demand will gradually decline, and polyester monthly output will decline [49]. - 4.3 Polyester Product Inventory: At the end of the month, downstream continued to replenish inventory, and the overall sales of polyester products increased. The finished - product inventory of polyester factories decreased in the latter part of the month [52]. - 4.4 Polyester Cash Flow: With the increase in polymerization costs and limited increases in polyester filament prices, the cash flow of most models was compressed [57]. - 4.5 Weaving Industry: As of October 30, the operating load of the weaving industry was 69%, a month - on - month increase of 2.55%. The average number of days for terminal weaving orders was 17.86 days, an increase of 2.18 days from the previous week. As the temperature drops, the market mainly focuses on winter orders for Double Eleven, but the export volume of stretch yarns has declined. Most manufacturers are cautious about November demand and are currently focusing on inventory digestion. If terminal orders cannot continue to increase, manufacturers may still reduce production to avoid risks [60].