10月PMI数据点评：制造业承压，仍需政策支撑

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The report analyzes the October 2025 PMI data, indicating that the manufacturing industry is under pressure and the economy still needs policy support. The manufacturing PMI has declined, with structural pressures intensifying, while the service industry has a mild uptick and the construction industry remains sluggish. Future economic improvement requires the implementation of policies such as anti - involution and expanding domestic demand [1][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - Overall Situation: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for seven consecutive months, showing a weakening overall manufacturing industry due to factors like reduced working days, trade frictions, and high inventory [1]. - Structural Pressures: All four major sub - indicators of the manufacturing PMI declined. The production index dropped to 49.7%, the new order index to 48.8%, the raw material inventory to 47.3%, and the employment index to 48.3%, indicating weakness in production, demand, and employment [2]. - Enterprise Scale: The PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, all in the contraction range. Large enterprises entered the contraction range for the first time in the second half of the year, and small and medium - sized enterprises have been below the boom - bust line for many months [2]. - Demand Side: External demand contracted significantly, with the new export order index dropping 1.9 percentage points to 45.9% and the import index falling 1.3 percentage points to 46.8%. Domestic demand was relatively stable, and the domestic market's support for demand increased [3]. - Industry Categories: New - energy - related industries had better prosperity, while basic raw material industries were weak. The production index of equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing decreased but remained in the expansion range, while the production index of basic raw material industries dropped below 48% [3]. - PMI Quantity - Price Sub - Index: The PMI quantity - price (ex - factory price index) sub - index weakened, reflecting the pressure of demand contraction and poor cost transmission. It may continue the contraction trend in the short term [5]. Service Industry - The service industry PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, hovering around the boom - bust line for many months. Consumer service industries recovered significantly, while production - related service industries fell into the contraction range [5]. Construction Industry - The construction industry PMI was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The decline of the real estate market and the slowdown of infrastructure investment were the main reasons for the industry's downturn, but infrastructure - related construction activities showed signs of acceleration [5]. Future Outlook - Economic recovery requires policy support. The implementation of anti - involution and domestic - demand - expansion policies in the fourth quarter will help improve the economy. The injection of new policy - based financial tools, the early use of part of the 2026 fiscal budget, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" will provide impetus for the manufacturing industry [6].