纸浆月报：下游需求略有改善，浆价区间震荡反弹-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In November, there will still be a differentiation phenomenon in the spot market. Hardwood pulp will be relatively firm under cost support, while softwood pulp will be weaker than hardwood pulp due to high inventory and demand substitution. Downstream base paper issued price increase letters in November, which is beneficial to market sentiment. The overall demand has slightly improved, and it is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a range [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - Spot Pulp Price Review: In October, the spot market price of pulp showed a pattern of weak softwood pulp and stable hardwood pulp. The prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood decreased, while the price of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish remained stable, and the price of Bird increased slightly. The price of chemical mechanical pulp remained stable, while the price of natural color pulp and bagasse pulp increased [11][14]. - Pulp Futures Market Technical Chart Analysis: Since its listing in November 2018, the weighted monthly K - line chart of pulp futures has basically shown a convergent triangle consolidation pattern. It is expected that the pulp price will continue to fluctuate and rebound within the convergent triangle in November [17]. - Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison: In October, the main - continuous contract of pulp futures increased, while the overall increase of wood pulp spot price was less than that of pulp futures, so the basis discount decreased significantly [20]. - Log Futures Market Review: In October, the main - continuous contract of log futures first rose and then fell, with a monthly decline of 3.61%. The weighted trading volume increased, and the weighted open interest decreased [22]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - Pulp Supply - Demand Balance Forecast: It is expected that the total pulp production in November will be 231.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. The total supply will be 736.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. The demand is expected to increase slightly [24][25]. - Monthly Pulp Production: In October 2025, the domestic pulp production increased. It is expected that the pulp production will decrease in November [26]. - Pulp Import Volume: In September 2025, the pulp import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volumes of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp increased, while the import volume of natural color pulp decreased. The import average price of pulp continued to decline [32][35][38][40]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption: In October 2025, the actual consumption of domestic pulp continued to rise [46][48]. - Wood Pulp Usage: The wood pulp usage of household paper and white cardboard increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The wood pulp usage of offset paper increased slightly, while that of coated paper decreased slightly [50][53]. - Downstream Paper Production: In October 2025, the production of household paper, offset paper, and white cardboard increased, while the production of coated paper decreased slightly. It is expected that the production of offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard will increase in November [56][58][60][64]. - Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis: In October, the price of household paper remained stable, the price of cultural paper continued to decline, the prices of white board paper and white cardboard increased, and the prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper also increased [67][69][71]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - Pulp Port Inventory: In October, the overall port inventory increased, with Qingdao Port reducing inventory, Changshu Port increasing inventory, and Gaolan Port reducing inventory. It is expected that the inventory will slightly decrease in November [73][77]. - Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts: In October, the pulp futures warehouse receipts decreased [78].