方正中期期货豆类期货与期权2025年11月报：豆类：进口成本抬升豆类商品预计筑底反弹-20251103

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of imported beans has increased, and it is expected that the prices of bean products will bottom out and rebound. Specifically, the price centers of CBOT soybeans, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, and soybean oil are expected to move slightly upward in November, while the price of soybean No. 1 is expected to operate within a narrow range [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 International Bean Market Analysis 3.1.1 CBOT Soybean Market - In 2025, the price of CBOT soybeans fluctuated. It was affected by factors such as USDA reports, South American weather, planting area adjustments, and biodiesel policies. In October, the price found strong support at 1000 cents per bushel and then rallied. It is expected to stabilize above 1100 cents per bushel in November and continue to rise slightly [15][16][108]. - The net non - commercial long positions in CBOT soybeans indicate strong bullish sentiment, and the price is expected to remain strong [19]. - There is a risk of La Nina, which is expected to last until December 2025 - February 2026 and may transition to an ENSO neutral state in 2026 [29]. - The current good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is lower than last year's level, and it is expected that the high - yield estimate of 53.5 bushels per acre will be revised downwards, which will support the price of CBOT soybeans [33]. - The old - crop inventory of US soybeans has decreased, and the new - crop planting area has been reduced. The new - crop supply - demand balance is expected to tighten, which is bullish for CBOT soybeans [40][54]. - The US soybean crushing volume has reached record highs, indicating strong domestic demand [44]. - The US soybean crushing profit has decreased compared to the same period last year, while the soybean crushing profit in Brazil's Mato Grosso state has increased compared to the same period last year. Brazil's soybean crushing profit is good, and the basis is expected to remain firm [49]. 3.1.2 South American Bean Market - Brazil's soybean planting progress is in line with the same period last year, and the harvest area is expected to increase. Brazil's soybean production has been increasing in recent years, which competes with US soybeans. The export potential of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the supply - demand balance is expected to be more relaxed [62][66][70]. - Argentina's soybean supply - demand balance has tightened slightly this year, and the government's tariff policy has an impact on the international bean market [77]. - The basis of South American soybeans is expected to remain firm due to factors such as reduced export potential in Brazil and good domestic crushing profits [81]. 3.1.3 Global Bean and Oilseed Market - Global oilseed production has been increasing, mainly driven by the continuous increase in South American soybean production [85]. - The US biodiesel policy has uncertainties, and there is a risk that the policy may not be fully implemented, which may affect the demand for US soybeans [97]. - The global soybean supply - demand balance shows that the inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased in the 2025/26 season due to the expected decline in US soybean production and strong demand, which is bullish for global bean prices [101]. 3.2 Domestic Bean Market Analysis 3.2.1 Dalian Commodity Exchange Bean Futures Market - The price of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal has fluctuated. In 2025, it was affected by factors such as US soybean production, South American supply, and biodiesel policies. Currently, the price is supported by increased import costs, but the upward momentum is weak. It is expected to trade in a narrow range around 3000 - 3100 yuan per ton in November [114][219]. - The price of DCE soybean oil has also fluctuated. Although the current inventory is at a historical high, the expected reduction in oilseed imports in the fourth quarter and the slowdown in palm oil inventory accumulation are expected to support the price, and it is expected to stop falling and rise after recent adjustments [8][120]. - The price of DCE soybean No. 1 has been affected by factors such as domestic production, purchase sentiment, and Sino - US trade negotiations. It is expected to operate in a narrow range in November [8][201]. - The price of DCE soybean No. 2 is expected to rise slightly in November due to increased import costs, while the commercial import of US soybeans is not very active due to negative crushing margins [8][209]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bean Supply and Demand - The profit of domestic soybean crushing has narrowed, which may reduce the enthusiasm of oil mills for importing soybeans and limit the downward space of downstream oil and meal prices [129]. - In the third quarter, the arrival of South American soybeans increased, and the inventory of coastal soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil has accumulated. Currently, the export potential of Brazilian soybeans has declined, and the basis is high. The willingness of oil mills to actively import US soybeans is weak due to poor crushing margins [132]. - As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 973.1 million tons, the domestic main oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 105.46 million tons, and the national key - area commercial soybean oil inventory was 125.03 million tons [137][141][149]. - The import volume of domestic soybean oil has decreased due to high inventory, and the impact on domestic prices is limited. The import volume of domestic soybean meal is very small and has little impact on domestic prices [152][154]. 3.2.3 Domestic Feed and Livestock Market - The profit of pig farming is poor, the growth rate of the sow inventory has slowed down, the inventory of laying hens has stopped increasing and adjusted, and the demand for soybean meal in the feed industry is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter [164][171][175]. 3.3 Bean Operation Opportunity Analysis No relevant content provided. 3.4 Seasonal Analysis and Market Judgment - Each type of bean product has different price trends and influencing factors in different seasons. Overall, the prices of bean products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, import costs, and policies. In November, it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as US soybean exports, biodiesel policies, and the progress of South American soybean planting [8].