日度策略参考-20251103

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report In the short - term, with the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the overall better - than - expected third - quarter report earnings, market sentiment may shift from relative optimism to caution, and various asset prices are expected to be in a volatile stage. Policy support and abundant macro - liquidity provide support for the market, but there are also factors that suppress price increases in different sectors [1]. Summary by Related Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: In the short - term, the stock index may enter a volatile stage to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, with strong support below due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. - Gold: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and gradually stabilize [1]. - Silver: With multiple factors in play, the silver price may remain volatile [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: The macro - positive sentiment has been digested, and the copper price has corrected, but the downward space is expected to be limited [1]. - Aluminum: There is limited industrial - side drive recently, and after the digestion of macro - positives, the aluminum price fluctuates [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the fundamental weakness pressures the spot price. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - Zinc: The overall macro - positive sentiment has been digested, and the LME zinc squeeze risk has decreased but still exists. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to maintain high - level volatility [1]. - Nickel: The short - term nickel price may be dominated by macro factors and oscillate, with high inventory still suppressing. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and there is still pressure from long - term primary nickel surplus [1]. - Stainless steel: The short - term stainless steel futures may oscillate. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for opportunities to sell at high prices for hedging [1]. - Tin: Considering the unrepaired raw material end and good new - demand expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low levels in the long - term [1]. - Industrial silicon: Northwest production capacity is resuming, polysilicon production in November is decreasing, and it is affected by the spill - over of polysilicon [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation increases marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Lithium carbonate: The new energy vehicle peak season is approaching, energy storage demand is strong, but there is high hedging pressure [1]. Black metals - Rebar: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the realization of macro - sentiment, attention should be paid to upward pressure [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - Iron ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential due to good commodity sentiment [1]. - Coke: Direct demand is good with cost support, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates price fluctuations [1]. - Coking coal: Coking coal is challenging the previous high, but there is uncertainty about whether it can break through. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Coke: The coke futures are at a premium. Industrial customers can consider selling some spot for hedging when the price rises [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: It still faces the dual pressure of seasonal production increase and weak exports in the short - term, but may rebound if export data improves in November [1]. - Soybean oil: The agreement to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months may bring a loose supply expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders and Canadian rapeseed harvest put pressure on the market [1]. - Cotton: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The current price has fully priced in the selling pressure, and the downward space is limited, but the basis and price may be under pressure [1]. - Sugar: Sugar prices have seasonal upward momentum in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - Soybean meal: The domestic soybean meal price is expected to rebound to repair the crushing margin, but the supply situation restricts the rebound height [1]. - Paper pulp: The trading logic is about the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. It is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - Logs: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live pigs: The short - term futures price may weaken following the spot price, and there is still pressure on slaughter in November [1]. Energy and chemicals - Fuel oil: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation has cooled, and market sentiment has eased [1]. - Asphalt: In the short - term, it follows crude oil, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, with sufficient supply of Ma Rui crude oil [1]. - Natural rubber: It is supported by raw material costs, with decreasing intermediate inventory and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - BR rubber: The cost support of butadiene has declined, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose [1]. - PTA: The news of the "anti - involution" policy and production cuts have pushed up the price [1]. - Ethylene glycol: It follows the decline of crude oil prices, but coal - based cost support has strengthened, and polyester demand has not declined significantly [1]. - Short - fiber: It follows the cost closely, and the basis has strengthened with the rise of PTA price [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window is closed, and the profit of styrene has decreased [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and there is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and "anti - involution" [1]. - PVC: The market has returned to fundamentals, with reduced maintenance, more near - month warehouse receipts, and a weakening trend [1]. - Caustic soda: There are plans for alumina production in Guangxi, less concentrated maintenance, and problems with warehouse receipt digestion [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic market is also in a loose state [1]. - Container shipping (European line): The price has fallen to a low level, and there is a possibility of a rebound. It is entering the contract - changing stage and is expected to stop falling [1].